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What’s going on around the Central: American Thanksgiving edition
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Photo credit: © Terrence Lee-Imagn Images
Angus Hout
Nov 28, 2024, 20:26 EST
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Today is American Thanksgiving. There is no NHL hockey, as the NFL has the day locked up. If you didn’t know, since the 2005-06 season, 76.6% of teams in a playoff spot have gone on to play in the postseason. The Winnipeg Jets are on top of the Western Conference, with a four-point lead over second-place Minnesota Wild and have 99% chance at making the post season. While there is a clear divide between the top four teams and the bottom, is there any chance a team could go from missing the postseason to making it? Let’s find out.
Minnesota Wild – 2nd
The Wild have been a surprise to much of the NHL. They are currently third in the league with a .727 winning percentage. Goaltender Filip Gustavsson has been a big reason for the team’s success, with a 10-4-3 record, a 2.06 Goals Against Average, and a .929 save percentage. They are 6-2-2 in their last 10 games. Kirill Kaprizov is in the Hart Trophy conversation, with 14 goals and 35 points in 21 games this season. He missed a game as a precaution after a knee-on-knee hit.
The Wild have three games this upcoming week, with two of those games against the division’s two worst teams, the Chicago Blackhawks and the Nashville Predators. It could be the week the Wild sneak past the Jets for first place. Unless major injuries happen, I doubt they will miss the postseason this year.
Dallas Stars – 3rd
This is exactly where I pegged the Stars to be at this point in the season; they just chug along. I wouldn’t be shocked if they end up winning the Central Division by season’s end, especially if the Jets do their annual end-of-season nosedive. Dallas dropped their last two games to the Chicago Blackhawks and the Carolina Hurricanes, getting scored on six times in both games.
Jake Oettinger will most likely be the backup to Connor Hellebuyck at the Four-Nation Faceoff, despite having a solid season with an 11-4-0 record, a .912 save percentage, and a 2.43 goals-against average. They are 6-4-0 in their last 10 games and have 26 points this season.
Both Dallas and Minnesota have scored 71 goals this season. Dallas has one of the worst power plays in the NHL, with a 16.7% success rate, while their penalty kill is in the top 10 in the league at 81.7%. Matt Duchene, who was wandering around the NHL before joining the Stars last season, is leading the team with 12 goals and 26 points. Dallas has four games in the next week: against the Colorado Avalanche, the Jets, Utah Hockey Club, and the LA Kings.
Colorado Avalanche – 4th
The Colorado Avalanche were hit hard by the injury bug to start the season. However, they’ve managed to push through, with teammates returning slowly but surely. They hold the first wild-card playoff spot in the West and are tied with the Stars for 26 points, but have played more games than Dallas. The Avalanche are 7-3-0 in their last 10 games.
Goaltending has been a problem for Colorado this season. They have played four different goaltenders, with all but Trent Miner, who played just 34:58, posting a save percentage of .875 or lower. Starter Alexandar Georgiev, who stopped the Jets in their tracks in the playoffs last year, has a 7-5-0 record, a .875 save percentage, and a 3.26 goals-against average.
As expected, Mikko Rantanen leads the Avalanche with 14 goals, and Nathan MacKinnon leads the team with 35 points. Colorado is probably a playoff team based on the skill they have up front, but unless the goalie situation improves, they might get the “five-game postseason treatment.” This is one of the teams that will be fighting for one of the wild-card playoff spots without any changes in net.
The Avs have three games in the next week: against the Stars, the Edmonton Oilers, and the Buffalo Sabres.
St. Louis Blues – 5th
The St. Louis Blues could be the team to go from missing the postseason to making it. After former head coach Drew Bannister was fired on November 24th and replaced with Jack Adams winner Jim Montgomery, who was dismissed by the Boston Bruins earlier this month, the change in coaching might be enough to fire up the team for a push toward the playoffs. The Blues have played the most games in the division (24) and are two points behind the Vancouver Canucks, who currently hold the final wild-card playoff spot and have played just 21 games.
The Blues have won their two games with Montgomery behind the bench, outscoring their opponents 8-2. Only time will tell whether the coaching change helps the Blues, but they would make for an interesting team to sneak into the postseason.
Utah Hockey Club – 6th
Utah is continuing the proud tradition of Jets 1.0 and the Coyotes as an underwhelming team. Utah is 9-10-3 this season and 2-4-0 in their last six games. They’ve been dealing with injuries to John Marino, Sean Durzi, Connor Ingram, and Robert Bortuzzo.
I find Utah’s goaltenders fascinating. Ingram has the better record (6-4-3), but his save percentage (.871) and goals-against average (3.61) are worse than backup Karel Vejmelka’s, who has a 3-6-0 record but a much better save percentage (.922) and goals-against average (2.25). Dylan Guenther leads Utah in goals with 10, and he and Clayton Keller lead the team with 20 points each.
Utah has a -9 goal differential, having scored just 60 goals while allowing 69. They are slightly better than Dallas on the power play, with a 16.9% success rate, but their penalty kill ranks in the bottom 10 in the NHL at 76.9%.
The Blues have a quiet next seven days, taking on the Philadelphia Flyers and the Jets.
Chicago Blackhawks – 7th
Poor Connor Bedard—he’s still a few years away from making the postseason. The Blackhawks are truly suffering, as they are 31st in the NHL, tied with the last-place Nashville Predators with just 18 points. The Blackhawks are 8-12-2 this season.
Ryan Donato leads the Blackhawks with 8 goals, while Bedard leads the team with 16 points. They’ve scored the second-fewest goals this season (55) and have allowed 65 goals. Surprisingly, they are 11th in the NHL on the power play, with a 21.8% success rate. Their penalty kill ranks in the top 10 in the NHL at 78.9%. While their special teams are decent, they’ve been without their starting goaltender, Laurent Brossoit, and top defender Seth Jones since November 16th.
The Blackhawks have a busy four-game week ahead: against the Wild, the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Toronto Maple Leafs, and the Boston Bruins. I hope this team improves for the sake of their generational talent, Bedard. He is still young, so there are plenty of years ahead for him to terrorize us in Winnipeg and the rest of the division.
Nashville Predators
Everyone take a moment to laugh at Nashville and how bad they’ve been to start the season after spending $70 million this offseason to acquire players like Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault. GM Barry Trotz has threatened the team with a rebuild if things don’t improve soon. This team is at the bottom of the NHL and will need a miracle to win more than 30 games this season.
This was unexpected for the Predators. I fully expected them to challenge for the division title after a tough fight to make the playoffs last year. With the addition of Stamkos and Marchessault, plus Ryan O’Reilly’s veteran leadership and the excellence of goaltender Juuse Saros, I had them finishing closer to the top of the Western Conference.
Saros has a 6-10-3 record this season, with a .913 save percentage and a 2.58 goals-against average. You can’t blame him for the team’s struggles, especially when you look at how he played against the Jets last Saturday.
Filip Forsberg leads the Predators with nine goals, and Roman Josi leads the team with 18 points. The team has been snakebitten, scoring just 54 goals this season while allowing 73. They are 20.8% on the power play and have the best penalty kill in the NHL at 90.7%. The best penalty kill in a full season was the 2011-12 New Jersey Devils, who finished with an 89.6% success rate.
This team has struggled with scoring, which has hindered them in the first quarter of the season. I think they will get better and could finish 6th in the division, but they need to turn things around ASAP. They can start with the three games they are playing in the next week: against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Wild, and the Maple Leafs.