logo
JetsNation has no direct affiliation to the Winnipeg Jets, True North Sports & Entertainment, NHL, or NHLPA
Slicing and Dicing the Jets Drafts: 2011
alt
Garret Hohl
Apr 21, 2016, 12:12 EDTUpdated: Invalid DateTime
Comments
The season is over, the draft is coming soon, and Winnipeg Jets fans look to the future for a sign of hope.
The Jets have now taken part in five NHL Entry drafts, and typically speaking after five years you have a good idea of where a draft stands in accumulating talent. While players do not peak statistically until about 24-26, at 23 years of age we are fairly confident where Scheifele and Lowry likely end up as players versus Austen Brassard.
Let’s take a look at the offensive development of the Jets draftees and accumulated prospects, starting with the Jets 2011 Draft.
A few quick notes about the numbers:
The more refined PCS model has gone proprietary with the Florida Panthers purchasing the model that was developed over Canucks Army (and a bit here at Jets Nation). There is a replacement being worked upon; however, since it is not ready at this time we will use the more archaic NHLE model.
NHLEs uses regression modeling to predict how much the average player in a particular league will score in the NHL relative to their performance in their older league, using players who have moved from one league to the other. For example, the average OHL graduate will retain 33% of their point pace in the NHL. This puts players scoring from different leagues into a common currency: NHL points.
The largest issue with NHLEs is that they were designed to look at players moving directly into the NHL, not to rank prospects.
The model uses players who move directly from their league to the NHL, but the typical player who makes the NHL the next year is different depending on the league. The standard player graduating from the OHL to the NHL is a young prospect, while European leagues tend to be older developed players who move into defined roles, and the AHL contains mostly depth players being called up for fourth line roles. This is why European prospects tend to have extremely low NHLEs.
The NHLE model is also age agnostic. We expect a player to score more the next season through development, but NHLEs does not adjust for age differences when you compare players of a different age. An older player with a higher NHLE could be performing relatively worse.
Finally, offensive production is incredibly important in prospect analysis. Offensive production highly predicts NHL success and even most depth and defensive players in the NHL were relatively strong producers at lower levels. However, it is not the end all, and production can be impacted by coaching deployment as well as linemates, team, and opponent quality.
To make things fun, I looked at NHLEs in three different ways. Last NHLE (lNHLE) is the player’s NHLE over their last season. Cumulative NHLE (cNHLE) is the players NHLE point pace over their entire career. Marcels NHLE (mNHLE) uses a weighted average, where most recent production is worth more than past production.

2011 Draft

Where are they now:
  • The Jets sent shock waves rippling as they selected Mark Scheifele as their first ever selection as Jets 2.0. Scheifele has been developing into quite the offensive, top-line player and the Jets beat the odds taking a chance on the then lower scoring and lower ranked centre.
  • Joel Armia was not drafted by the Jets, but he was drafted 16th overall by the Buffalo Sabres and traded to the Jets from the Evander Kane deal. Armia has struggled to make good on the potential he showed in his draft season, but he did look like a potential middle-six winger in his NHL call up.
  • Adam Lowry might never be a offensive threat but he does look to be a legitimate NHL player. He displayed impressive defensive prowess in his rookie season but took a bit of a step back this last season.
  • The Jets had no second round pick due to Atlanta Thrashers trading for Andrew Ladd. The Jets traded two fourth rounds, trading up to select Brennan Serville. Serville only received an AHL contract, but spent most of his time in the ECHL. Jets left Nick Shore on the board.
  • Again the Jets traded to move up, exchanging a 5th and 7th for San Jose’s 4th, selecting Zach Yuen. Yuen was an okay scorer in junior, but has been playing in the ECHL which does not have a NHLE (and so is pulling down his performance). Yuen has actually been performing pretty well in the ECHL and is likely worth a look for some AHL team.
  • Austen Brassard was taken in the 5th round, one pick before Frank Corrado. Brassard arguably had his best season last year, and could turn out to be a decent AHL depth-scoring winger.
  • The Jets drafted goaltender Jason Kasdorf next, who was then traded away to the Buffalo Sabres in the Evander Kane trade. Kasdorf left college this season and and played his first NHL game, stopping 26 of 30 shots.
  • The Jets took Aaron Harstad in the 7th round, missing (like many other teams) on talents like Jyrki Jokipakka and Ondrej Palat. Harstad, like Serville, has struggled in the ECHL under an AHL contract with the Manitoba Moose.

Breaking News