The Winnipeg Jets’ top prospect from the 2015 NHL Entry Draft just completed what may be a historically defining season in the NCAA. Connor completed his freshman year with 71 points, just like Jack Eichel the year prior, making Connor and Eichel the highest scoring freshmen since Paul Karyia in 1993.

Should the Winnipeg Jets sign Connor now or pursue him in the summer?

There is very little Connor has left to prove to himself and others by playing another year in the NCAA. Connor put up extraordinary scoring numbers, leading the league as a freshman just like Jack Eichel. While Eichel’s performance was more exceptional given his younger age and playing in a tougher division, this does not diminish that Connor’s performance still resides as one of the best in the league in decades.

Strength training has long been developed around its fundamental idea of progressive overload. The theory goes that someone most efficiently develops their skills when consistently increasing the intensity and difficulty of challenges a person faces, provided they can successfully overcome that challenge.

The NCAA’s Big-10 conference is not going to get any harder next season and there is the danger of stagnation in Connor’s development.

With a weight just shy of 180 pounds at 6’1, Connor is hardly small but does not carry much mass. His game will never be one of strength though. Connor, like Jets’ star rookie Nikolaj Ehlers, plays more of a speed game, using his quickness to separate himself from the opposition rather than overpowering them. Unlike Ehlers though, Connor’s game doesn’t revolve around carrying the puck as much which may increase his ease into the NHL.

If his development starts off rocky, there is also the possibility of the AHL for some seasoning. Being drafted outside of the three Canadian major junior hockey leagues allows the Jets the availability to send Connor down to the AHL regardless of his age.

Connor is ready to be signed, but why is there a debate about signing him this year versus in the summer? The answer has to do with Entry Level Contract sliding rules.

In the NHL CBA, a player signed to an ELC that is under 20 years of age and plays less than 10 NHL games in the season has their contract slide a year. For example, Mark Scheifele signed his three-year ELC with the Jets in the summer of 2011, but had the start of his contract slide twice with playing less than 10 games two seasons in-a-row and only started playing under his contract during the 2013-14 season.

The caveat is that due to the current language in the CBA, the age cutoff has to do with the player’s age in the same calendar year of the contract. Since Connor is a December birthday, he is turning 20 this calendar year and any ELC he signs this year would not slide. In other words, if the Jets were to sign Connor to an ELC prior to the season ending, the Jets would burn the first year of Kyle’s contract.

Why would the Jets wish to burn a year of a cheap Entry Level Contract?

Surprisingly enough there are actual, genuine reasons why it may be beneficial for the Jets to garner Connor’s signature as soon as possible.

First off, burning a year of entry level contract is a financial incentive to get the player. Imagine getting paid for three years of work with only working two years and a bit. This causes the first year to act almost like a huge signing bonus and encourages a player to join the team instead of returning to college the next year. 

This is exactly what the Jets did the previous year with another former Michigan Wolverine, Andrew Copp.

There is another reason the Jets might wish to burn an ELC year. The combination of financial constraints from a Salary Cap league and discovery of true player developmental curves with the analytical revolution has caused the economical environment in hockey to shift.

Teams are starting to understand that player performance peak is much earlier than once believed, with all indications that the average player tends to peak around 24-26 regardless of position and that player usage from coaches has artificial pushed that peak back. Add in the salary cap factor, and we see far more teams spending longterm right after the end of an ELC, foregoing the traditional bridge contract.

The Florida Panthers locked in Aleksander Barkov for six years, as did the Pittsburgh Penguins with Olli Maata. The Winnipeg Jets will have to make the same decisions with Mark Scheifele and Jacob Trouba this summer.

If the Jets are to wait and sign Connor in the summer, he will end his ELC at 22-years-old. The Jets will then either look to extend him longterm then or give him a 2-to-3 year bridge contract, which would put Connor’s long term contract negotiations right when players tend to have peak performance. Burning a year of ELC would shift each of those situations one year earlier, reducing Connor’s resume and leverage in negotiations, while having no change in when Connor shifts from being a RFA to a UFA.

The Toronto Maple Leafs seem to be taking this strategy already with William Nylander now burning a year with 10 NHL games played despite the team’s season being long over.

There is also the “taste of the NHL angle” with giving Connor some NHL-level game and practice experience to reflect on where he needs to work on over the summer. However, there are loopholes with emergency tryout contracts that may be able to garner that result as well.

It has been suggested to me from more than one source that Connor is more than willing to sign a NHL contract and come to camp next season, thus ending his collegiate eligibility. If this is the case, the Jets may not need the financial incentive of a burnt year to seduce Connor, although there are always some dangers whenever playing chicken to pinch pennies.

The biggest blockade likely comes from the unknowns of a NHL Expansion Draft. The rules surrounding the NHL Expansion draft may not be finalized, but the General Managers seem to have a general idea of what will go on. We’ve previously discussed that in the event of a June 2017 NHL Expansion Draft the Jets will not need to protect any players that start their NHL career this season or next year.

All signs point out to the NHL plans to expand for the 2017-2018 season and it seems to be one of the worst kept secrets. But, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry…

If for some reason the NHL is unable to keep up with their timeline and push back the expansion a year, the rules will slide and rookies this season like Nikolaj Ehlers and Josh Morrissey will no longer be covered by league protection.

It will also cost the team more money, and the Jets are a budget team. Real dollars matter more to a small revenue club like the Winnipeg Jets, especially with the current performance of the Canadian dollar. It may end up being better for the Jets to save now and spend later, hoping a shifting dollar will reduce the pain in the future. (As an aside: this may also encourage the Jets to sign bridge deals with Scheifele and Trouba instead of going the Barkov and Maata paths)

Whatever the Jets decide, it will be really exciting to see Connor join the ranks of an exciting young core of players like Scheifele, Trouba, Ehlers, Morrissey, Conor Hellebuyck, Marko Dano, Nic Petan, Adam Lowry, and others.