Olli Jokinen: Please eat another hamburger

         

Olli Jokinen was a free agent signing by the Jets this off-season – a two year, $9million deal intended to give Scheifele time to develop, add veteran depth down the middle, and create goals. He’d come off seasons of 54 and 61 points in Calgary (version 2), and though he is far removed from his 90 point seasons in Florida, Jokinen’s lowest scoring season in the inter-lockout period was a 50 point campaign split between the Flames and Rangers. That is, until his 23 point pace with the Jets this year. And to be clear, that’s a 23 point pace over an 82 game season. Boxcars aren’t everything, but I can’t help but start with the question, how bad has he been? It’s not for the weak of stomach.

Back in January, long-time blogger-to-the-Flames Kent Wilson wrote us a guide to what we could expect from Jokinen. Here’s what he had to say:

Glancing at the Jets official page, Jokinen’s team picture is awfully disappointing given Kent’s hype. But that’s on me, too. I haven’t photoshopped a single gourd-head all year. Made a muppet doll, Kevin? Forget about it.

It seems he’s leaving behind his history of making people laugh. Maybe it’s to showcase his dramatic talents? Maybe this season will be considered Jokinen’s JFK after a decade of Splash, Home Alone, Summer Rental, and Planes, Trains, and Automobiles. (That’s right – a career in John Candy movie titles) Sadly for us, it’s looking more like we’re living in Uncle Buck than an Oliver Stone movie.

So much to explain. First, TM Fenwick is not a common stat – that’s the Fenwick (attempted shots – shot blocks) of people who have played with Jokinen when they’re not playing with Jokinen. The rest we see all the time, but tell an interesting tale.

Commonly, when we’re looking for clues about a player, possession and territory (represented here by Fenwick numbers and RelCorsi), along with swings in shooting percentage, and changes in the player’s role (shown by quality of competition, zone start and time on ice) tell us the problem. Usually the problem is a streak. One piece slips and history tells us it will come back to normal. It’s more complicated for Olli.

We can blame luck a little. His PDO (5×5 on-ice shooting% + on-ice save%) is very low. His on-ice shooting % is low – just under 5% for a player who floats around 8%. So, bad luck. But he’s been on the ice for 236 shots for, so if we spot him that 3%, he goes from 12 goals on-ice to 18. If we’re so generous as to give him 6 more points – assume he got a point on every shot that luck kept out of the net (that’s a dramatic sentence, not how luck works) – he would be on pace for 37 points in an 82 game season. AKA $122K per point. That said, his on-ice save percentage is ruinous and some of that must be luck, so I haven’t even mentioned his (team worst by almost double) -15 +/-. Until now.

So we’ve explained some of his -15 amd forgiven him, and boosted his scoring in our imaginations to compensate for luck. But where are the other 15(ish) points? Keeping in mind the lockout and the chance that he’s injured or not in peak form (i.e. in ridiculous shape, instead of unbelievable shape) so as to not rush to judgement, all his numbers stink. His zone starts got easier. He was playing top opposition  last year for Calgary but his quality of competition is around his career average this year. His shooting % is bad, but it’s been worse. His powerplay time is down, I guess, but it’s actually #1 among Jets forwards – we just don’t get many powerplays. In sum, Claude Noel is not using him in a role he’s unfamiliar with, and in fact, it’s a role he’s played most of his career.

And yet Jokinen’s possession numbers are sub-50, and he’s actually dragging his linemates down. His scoring is atrocious. And his PP scoring is worse somehow. He’s starting in the offensive zone against 2nd and 3rd liners and getting all the PP minutes available. He’s going the wrong way, not scoring, and there’s no underlying number to point at to say he’ll turn it around beyond not getting scored against as often.

Now for the worst part. Corsi % with and without specific teammates. I used only players who had played more than 50 minutes with Jokinen, and they’re organized most minutes to least. Still a small sample of minutes, but a pretty damning result.

The good news is that we’ve found Olli a line! It’s Wright and Wellwood, Hainsey and Bogosian – the only four players with better corsi % with Jokinen than without. The bad news is that the centre on that line still makes 4.5 million dollars.

Olli Jokinen hasn’t been very lucky this year, but his offence doesn’t appear to have dried up on account of luck alone. His possession numbers have declined, he drags most of his team mates into the wrong end of the ice despite starting in the offensive zone often, and his PP scoring is irredeemable as the team leader in PP minutes on the league’s 26th ranked powerplay. He is a serious problem given the opportunity cost of his ice time and contract. Let’s hope this is a blip due to injury or fatigue, and that he gets himself a hamburger soon.