Jets Nation Prospect Profiles 2016: #12 Jansen Harkins

We are in the dregs of summer, so we take a critical look at the Winnipeg Jets organizational cupboards and highlight who we feel are the Jets’ “Top 20 Prospects” when looking at a combination of potential and probability of positive impact for the franchise.

We continue our prospect profile turning to North Shore Winter Club alum, Jansen Harkins.

Harkins is a two-way centre who has long been well respected for his defensive game and playmaking abilities. His largest area of weakness comes from his skating, both in mechanics and efficiency. However, the pivot has the size and drive to outwork most of the opposition while being exceptionally smart in his defensive positioning.

His offense is predominately driven from his well-above average puck skills and vision, although he also carries a decent shot in his toolkit.

In terms of production, Harkins had a peculiar year. Scoring over a point per game in his draft-eligible season on a weak team while being applauded for his defensive game placed Harkins in conversation for the first-round. This year, though, some would say Harkins’ offensive production was disappointing.

The 18-year-old only put up 57 points in 69 games, which is fairly low for what one would want from a second-round being hoped to potentially garner the Jets with a late first-round value, especially from someone who put up 79 in 70 the season prior.

When investigating, I did notice Harkins had an extremely slanted ratio of primary-to-secondary assists. Usually this suggests a player’s point totals were deflated due to the high variance nature that is secondary assists. That said, I noticed that the previous two seasons Harkins had a very high primary-to-secondary assist ratio as well.

It is possible that this is just the nature of Harkins game. Still, Harkins was effective both on and off the scoresheet for the Manitoba Moose over his six game call-up and his goal production in the WHL markedly improved this past year as well.

Harkins’ low scoring has taken a hit on his pGPS output. The model suggests that only 11 percent of similar players make the NHL for careers of 200 or more games. This is quite low compared to what the PCS model was project the season prior. 

One must ask how much of Harkins’ high draft-year scoring is indicative of his true-talent level, and then ask the same about his low scoring the next season. He still has a decent percentage of his NHL comps that made the NHL peaking as third-line or better players, suggesting that even if the 2015-16 campaign is his true nature he still has upside.

Harkins drops down our list from last years’ placement due to these reasons, but there is still a lot of time to be played for Harkins to push himself back up.