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TSN Analytics Interview: On the Myers for Kane trade and the future of Buff and Ladd
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Garret Hohl
Feb 3, 2016, 09:32 ESTUpdated: Invalid DateTime
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I had the recent pleasure of taking part of the TSN Analytics show. The interview can be found here (the January 30th, 2016 episode) if you wish to take a listen.
The major questions they gave me were my opinion on the Evander Kane and Tyler Myers trade one year later, and also what do I think the Winnipeg Jets should do with Andrew Ladd and Dustin Byfuglien. There were also some untouched questions they preemptively emailed me about, when they sent me a list of possible topics.
I had researched and written a few points on each topic prior to the interview, and had promised on Twitter to expand on the discussions on the show.
So, here is my point form notes being expanded into far more in-depth, long-paragraph form…

It’s nearly the one year anniversary of the Kane-Myers trade between the Jets and the Sabres. How would you break down this deal one year later?

Both Kane and Stafford score goals, but Stafford tends to make his teammates get outshot.
I think that this is a case where both teams got exactly what they wanted out of the deal.
No matter which way you cut it, Evander Kane was on his way out and all the Jets could do is maximize the dwindling return for a broken relationship. The Jets acquired Drew Stafford from the Buffalo Sabres, a then pending UFA, to fill the void of Kane leaving as the Jets pushed for their first playoff spot.
Despite his flaws, Stafford is still a useful player. The Jets were even able to extend Stafford’s contract, although they misjudged the market, overpaying for his services. This addition allowed them to recuperate much of the offensive production lost with Kane, despite Kane being the better overall player.
Myers and Bogosian have eerily similar strengths and weaknesses, but Myers tends to prevent shots more.
In addition, I think an underrated factor is the swap for Zach Bogosian for Tyler Myers. I view both defenders to be very much imperfect, and typically over valued and overrated, but useful support pieces on the second pair. While very different players, they are similar in overall impact.
The difference though is Myers salary structure works best for the Jets. Bogosian’s contract was heavily back-ladened and had much of his salary to come. Myers though carried most of his salary on his contract in the past and had already received payment from Buffalo.
Not only does Myers’ remaining contract seem more coveted for a small market, budget team like Winnipeg, the Jets essentially had a similar level defender for multiple years and paid them less than the average contract value.
Buffalo meanwhile got what they wanted as well. They were in the gunning for their future franchise centre with one of Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, and were able to acquire an NHL ready player for their future without harming the tank. Kane is signed long term and will be a solid winger for the Sabres for when their prospects develop and their competitive window opens.
The acquisition of Kane, and later that summer Ryan O`Reilly, sped up the developmental process with acquiring NHL ready players in return for prospects and a pending free agent.
Finally, Bogosian adds a physical element that the Sabres felt their defensive corps was missing, especially with many of their defensive prospects graduating soon to the NHL.
Evander Kane is likely the best player of the trade, but not by an overwhelming margin. The prospect swap for goaltender Jason Kasdorf for Joel Armia, Jack Roslovic, and Brendan Lemieux adds some intriguing variables to the mix.
Goaltenders are always difficult to project, as very few of them ever make the NHL. While Armia’s upside has fallen from the lofty projections he once carried as an elite Finish League goal scorer, the Jets are already starting to see Armia develop into a capable middle six winger. Roslovic has a tonne of upside offensively, while still defensively capable and has experience as both a winger and centre. While Lemieux may never develop beyond a fourth line agitator role, there is potential in him establishing himself as a source of secondary offense from the Jets’ bottom six in the future.

The Jets have a couple of big names coming up at the deadline- Dustin Byfuglien and Andrew Ladd- what should they do with each player given where they, and the team is at in their careers? Should they resign both, one of, or neither?

Andrew Ladd, far more than a third liner on a competitive team.
This is a very tough question to answer to be honest. I can understand why even Kevin Cheveldayoff seems to be struggling with the answer and being confident with what he wishes to do with the two star Jets.
In the end, it comes down to quite a few variables and the subjective opinion on when the Jets should aim to have their players and assets peak for the team’s competitive window.
The team is a broken team, and we can see this with their performance this season. But, they are also a fixable team, as we can see with the team’s legitimately strong performance last season.
I truly believe the Jets top end of Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little, Blake Wheeler, Tobias Enstrom, and Dustin Byfuglien are strong enough to compete for the cup against any other team. I also believe they have some good support pieces in place with Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Jacob Trouba, and Connor Hellebuyck.
The problem is the team collapses down a stark cliff after that. And fast.
I truly believe if the bottom were fixed we could see a team compete for the cup. We saw hints of this last year with the Jets being one of the top three 5v5 teams with the additions of support pieces like Michael Frolik, Lee Stempniak, and Jiri Tlusty.
In other words, I really do believe the Jets competitive window is closer than others seem to believe. However, there is the problem with both Ladd’s and Byfuglien’s age. Both are past their prime peak ages and will descend in impact and effectiveness through their next contract.
This isn’t totally bad. Both will still likely be competitive and useful players throughout most, if not all, of their next contract. They will still be able to push the team positively. While the impact sinks below contract value, teams make up for this elsewhere by carrying cheap and useful players on ELC and RFA contracts.
The issue is I don’t think the Jets can carry both Ladd and Byfuglien. In three years all of Wheeler, Enstrom, and Little will be looking for their next contract and also be descending in impact versus contract value. There is a limit to how many of these players the Jets can and should hold.
The amazing thing is that Byfuglien put up these results with spending 1/3 of the sample as a 3rd line calibre forward.
In my opinion, the Jets should choose Dustin Byfuglien over Andrew Ladd.
I believe that both are exceptional players, but I place more value on Byfuglien. I view Byfuglien as just a bit more exceptional than Ladd. In addition, I think the Jets current roster and prospect cupboards are more in tune to handle a step back with the loss of Ladd, than with Byfuglien.
The Jets on wing carry Perreault, Ehlers, Wheeler, and Stafford as capable top nine wingers. That’s four out of the six gaps. It is very realistic that between Armia, Roslovic, Kyle Connor, Lemieux, Nic Petan, Adam Lowry, and Alexander Burmistrov the Jets could have the two other competent wingers filled in as well.
All three of Petan, Ehlers, and Connor have put up a lot of points in their early years.
Byfuglien though leaves a hole. Tobias Enstrom is highly underrated, but is coming towards the later years of his career. Jacob Trouba is exceptionally talented and still moving towards his upside. Tyler Myers may be overvalued by many, but is still a legitimate top four defender. After that, there isn’t really much for help.
Joshua Morrissey could fill that hole in the Jets top-four, but that is it. Unlike at wing where the Jets have multiple lottery tickets, the Jets only have one legitimate one at defense.
(We’ll go over more of the details and the evidence later as we continue our “Helping Chevy make decisions” series)

What are the long-terms projections for Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Jacob Trouba?

In all fairness and honesty, I was one of the individuals disappointed when the Winnipeg Jets 2.0 selected Mark Scheifele over Sean Couturier as their first ever draft pick, but everything seems to be working out okay now. I did say that it could work out, but was a bit skeptical. Although, I did not know then what I know now, both in hindsight but also in just prospect and development knowledge. I was a huge fan of Nikolaj Ehlers and Jacob Trouba before hand.
Scheifele had quite the improvement in three seasons.
Scheifele was a guy in junior that I thought maybe he’d drive shooting percentage and scoring, but not shot differentials. Essentially a centre version of Drew Stafford, or a David Krejci-lite. Then when Scheifele entered the league as a regular he started off struggling all over the place.
Now a few years later we see Scheifele developing very much into a solid, whole-package player. He his more than a capable second line centre and his development should time well as Little begins to age.
Comparing the two in their rookie seasons, and Ehlers is one year younger.
Ehlers though I believe to have legitimate star potential, like none of the young Jets forwards have with the maybe exception of Kyle Connor. The kid has produced consistently well at every level, with the exception of some minutes stuck in the trenches with a below average fourth line player, Chris Thorburn.
In his draft year, Ehlers scored at an age-adjusted rate comparable to Steven Stamkos, Tyler Seguin, Tayler Hall, and John Tavares. Some dismissed his scoring though as riding the tails of teammate Jonathan Drouin. The next year Ehlers proved the doubters wrong, taking a huge leap in scoring and essentially placed the Halifax Mooseheads on his back for the entire season.
Ehlers is still a rookie, but a young one. At nineteen Ehlers already carries a better impact on shot differentials than Scheifele did at either 20 and 21. The young forward has seen his scoring rate dip with his demotion the the third line, but has slowly driven back up since his release.
Jacob Trouba or Dustin Byfuglien 2.0
Then there is Jacob Trouba. Trouba is an interesting player. He is very much a Dustin Byfuglien type in terms of on-ice impact. He scores goals at an excellent pace and has a huge impact in shot generation. He has struggled though in shot prevention, and it seems like he hasn’t had much progress in developing that area of the game.
I do wonder though how much of his numbers have been damaged by being stuck with a fringe NHL defender tied to his waist, the anchor that is Mark Stuart.
Trouba has already proven his worth as an above average top-four defender. There is still the unanswered question of where his ultimate peak falls. He has a tonne of tools and so their is some great potential, but he is not always the best with decision-making, which lends credence to how much of his upside is reachable.
He still has the potential to become an excellent all-around, all-situations defender.

While everyone gave credit to Paul Maurice, and the immediate burst of the success the Jets experienced under his watch, how would you grade his performance this season? How do you think he has handled the players under his watch? Would you do anything differently?

I like Maurice. I really do.
He seems like a legitimately smart guy. From what I have heard, he’s been a proponent in the Jets tracking events and looking at them both in the long and short term for insight. He seems to talk the talk for sure.
He also has had some legitimately positive outcomes from his introduction. The Jets saw a statistically significant rise in their even strength shot differentials when moving from Claude Noel to Maurice. In addition, they did this with their best defender (Byfuglien) playing at forward at the start. It doesn’t seem to be random chance either, as Ben Wendorf has previously shown that Maurice has a history in positively impacting shot differentials.
That said, I do have issues. I think we forget sometimes that coaches are like players, or all human beings really. There are many different areas of the game where a coach has control over and influence the team. These areas are the coaches inputs, and we tend to focus exclusively on the outputs.
A coach, like any player, can be good overall, but weak in particular areas.
The difference a coach (and some added depth) can make on a team.
The Jets have been an above league-average team at 5v5 with Maurice, but they have consistently struggled in two areas: penalty differentials and special teams. I truly believe that coaching, although not necessarily or exclusively head coaching, has a huge impact on both of those areas.
So, while I view Maurice as a good coach, a better coach than I would be, I don’t like his impact in each area.
I also do not agree with every single decision he makes. For example, I do not agree with the Jets using arguably the very worst penalty kill regular in the entire NHL over the past five seasons as their number one go to guy when at a disadvantage.
Mark Stuart has the very worst numbers in relative Corsi, relative Fenwick, relative Shot differential, War-On-Ice’s relative scoring chances, and goals against per sixty minutes. He’s not just bad in a few numbers, he’s legitimately the worst in shot attempts, shots, scoring chances, and goals. Yet, we see him as the prime choice. The only reason why the Jets penalty kill is not worse than it currently is extends from Stuart often being the player sent to the penalty box.

Given the unattractiveness of their geographic location, the crashing Canadian dollar, and the small size of their arena- how much trouble long term will the Jets have signing and paying top talent?

Statistical analysts often fall for thinking the mean is applicable to all individuals, which is not always the case. This is also what happens to statements like this.
There are many variables that go into a player’s decision making: team competitiveness, role, potential ice time, money, term, friends, city, organization, etc. The order of importance is going to vary among individuals.
It is true though that Winnipeg is at a disadvantage when it comes to some of these variables. Some, or maybe even many, will enjoy Winnipeg and living there, but most would likely choose to live somewhere else if all other things are equal.
Not everyone though. Many were taken aback by Byfuglien’s recently “lukewarm” response in regards to staying in Winnipeg, but without really understanding that’s how Byfuglien replies to pretty much every question. In many ways, Byfuglien is a hometown star. While he grew up in the US, he was not far from Winnipeg and enjoys the cottage country activities, like hunting and fishing.
In addition, the Jets have been a budget spender and will likely continue to stay there for a while with the financials inputs as they currently stand.
However, this can also be an advantage. In a league with spending controlled by a cap, chasing after the big name free agents can have its consequences. Teams can get trapped buying the player name and not the actual impact a player provides. Small market teams may even look to other areas to make up for this like we saw with baseball teams in the MLB and the “Moneyball” revolution.
While bonafide stars make their money, it’s the overall team impact in aggregate that wins games. One can make up for a lack in big-money stars further down in the line up with smart investment. The Winnipeg Jets not long ago signed Perreault to an easy 3 million dollar contract for 3 years, despite Perreault performing as a much higher paid player.
In addition, the RFA rules giving teams limited cost control over their young players covers the bulk of the prime years. Regardless of the position, it seems that all players peak somewhere around the 24 to 26-year-old range. Whether this is by Corsi percentage, points per sixty, or save percentage, it seems that the best years in a players impact on average is controlled by the team that drafts them, or acquired the player from the drafting team.

Do you feel Maurice and the front office are still in lock-step this season in utilizing advanced stats in coaching decisions and player transactions?

I have to say off the bat: all teams likely use statistics one way or another, and it has been like that for a very long while. Gabriel Desjardins once hypothesized that this is why hockey never really had the low-hanging fruit with grotesquely underutilized players that we saw in the early Moneyball era of baseball.
If you were to ask any team in the NHL, I don’t think any team any of them would say something other than they believe that they are using statistics as optimally as they competitively can and are looking for ways to utilize it even better. However, not every team can be the best.
To me, the process of analytics is using data to make more informed, and therefore hopefully better decisions. The more quality information you can bring about in a concise and utilizable manner, the better your decisions should be. In theory.
This is where teams can differ: what they look at, how often, and how much weighting they put into each area. But, with how close teams keep their cards to their chest, it is hard to really understand the process that goes into the outcomes and ultimate decisions we observe.
For the Jets, I think they use them with the best of intentions. I think they look at things like shot metrics and neutral zone statistics, like zone entries and exits. However, I’m not sure if I agree that they are making the best decisions from the data they are accumulating.
I think they have handed out too much money and term to fringe players like Chris Thorburn, Mark Stuart, and others. I think they have overly relied on these players in roles beyond their capabilities and have failed to provide the depth to avoid this from happening.
Thorburn is not an optimal fourth line player, but there are worse out there. Thorburn should never be on a third line though, and never as often as the Jets have done over the last two seasons combined.
Stuart was not deserving of the contract he was given nor the ice time he’s handed. The Jets have sometimes had players perform better and garner better results, but left to rot in the pressbox.
These are often the small decisions. We mostly agree upon the large and obvious ones: the best players are the Jets best players. However, as we touched on earlier with a budget team like the Jets, their decisions on the acquirement and usage of depth players is what will make and break a team like Winnipeg.

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