In an off-season that’s been full of action, which has seen the Winnipeg Jets lose youngster @Mason Appleton to the Seattle Kraken in the expansion draft, along with adding a pair of top-four defensemen, the dust is finally starting to settle as next season’s roster starts to take shape.
The work for general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff is not over yet, however. Having just re-signed @Logan Stanley to a very reasonable two-year extension with an AAV of $900,000 on Wednesday. Cheveldayoff now finds himself in a precarious situation, as he seeks to finalize contracts for restricted free agents @Neal Pionk and @Andrew Copp while navigating the tight salary cap restraints this team is now forced to work within.
Stanley’s contract appears to be a team-friendly deal for Winnipeg. It provides more cap flexibility to work with this off-season, and if his role in the top-six were to decline, the Jets are not on the books for an expensive depth defenseman.
At the same time, Stanley receives a bridge deal that’ll offer him the opportunity to show why he belongs as a regular top-six NHL blueliner. After his above-average performance in a sheltered third-pairing role last season, coach Paul Maurice will most likely look to give Stanley a chance to take on more responsibility this year, and this contract seems to represent fair value for both sides.
Now back to the two players of the hour.
According to PuckPedia.com, Winnipeg currently has just over $4.5 million in remaining cap space, clearly not enough space to sign both Pionk and Copp to new deals. The Jets are expected to move @Bryan Little’s $5.291 million contract to long-term injured reserved (LTIR), which would give Cheveldayoff approximately $9.7 million to work with during the season.
Both Copp and Pionk have filed for arbitration, which is a process where both sides each make their case for a player’s salary to an independent third party. Pionk’s hearing has been set for Aug. 13, while Copp’s is scheduled to take place on Aug. 26.
Winnipeg can still negotiate with both players and try to finalize a contract before the hearings, but since Copp and Pionk are both most likely looking for significant raises from their previous contracts and management is dealing with a very tight budget, the likelihood of a deal coming together prior to the hearings seems improbable.
Pionk’s camp will probably be looking to secure a contract somewhere in the $6 million range. @Josh Morrissey, one of the club’s best defensemen, is locked in for another seven years at $6.25 million per season.
Pionk’s agents could make the case that he’s been the better player over the last couple of seasons. In fact, Pionk outscored Morrissey 77-52 the past two seasons and also holds the advantage in +/- at a +16 rating compared to Morrissey’s even mark.
A long-term contract most likely hits at least $6 million per year and would then leave Winnipeg with just $3.7 million to lock up Copp’s next contract.
Copp’s contract figures to be the most difficult to negotiate, partially because he’s eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer, unlike Pionk, and his role on the Jets has seemingly been limited to just third-line duties. The reality is that with Winnipeg’s riches spent upfront, including @Mark Scheifele, @Kyle Connor and @Nikolaj Ehlers, Copp will most likely not earn an opportunity to slot into the top-six group if this team remains healthy.
Perhaps on another team, Copp’s role would be expanded to a second-line forward and would thus justify a salary in the range of $4-$5 million per season. However, since that is not the case for him in Winnipeg, Cheveldayoff may not be willing to hand out such a luxurious contract to a player destined to remain on the third line.
Copp’s impact defensively is undisputed, but his emergence offensively last season proved his value to the team, and his 58-point pace in 2020-21 would certainly seem to indicate a respectable salary raise.
The numbers just do not seem to line up for Winnipeg to retain both Copp and Pionk, unless Cheveldayoff can convince the pair to take a discount on a long-term contract or if their salaries are awarded by an arbitrator and come in lower than projected.
The Jets could also look to free up some money by trading veteran @Nathan Beaulieu, who carries a $1.25 million cap hit and looks to be the seventh defenseman for this club, but Maurice certainly likes to feature veteran depth on his rosters.
Even those moves might not be enough to relieve Winnipeg’s cap troubles, though. Maybe Copp agrees to a short-term deal for less money and the Jets risk letting him walk in unrestricted free agency next summer, but there’s also the possibility that Cheveldayoff tries to trade Copp for a cheaper, younger player and a draft pick.
After all, Copp’s value on the trade market is probably at an all-time high after his successful 2020-21 campaign, but depending on the return, a trade may create yet another hole in the Jets’ lineup upfront after losing Appleton in the expansion draft.
A player like @Dylan DeMelo could be traded to clear some cap space, although that would deplete the Jets of defensive quality that they’ve worked so hard to build this offseason.
Cheveldayoff will remain busy over these next few weeks trying to hammer out new contracts for Pionk and Copp, but as the Jets look to navigate their extremely tight cap situation this off-season, it’s clear that the path forward will not be an easy one.
