Wrapping up the Winnipeg Jets 2016 Draft

Laine is a goalscorer and shot volume contributor extraordinaire. He protects the puck well with his size both down low and when gaining the offensive zone. While not known for it, Laine is fairly underrated for his vision and playmaking skills, which have been improving quickly as did his skating throughout the season.

In terms of scoring, NHL Equivalent scoring (depending on which version you use) suggest Laine to score somewhere between 20-35 points. This is a severe underestimate though given the inherent derivation of NHLEs, which look at the typical player to move from the SM-Liiga to the NHL. A better expectation would likely be that of something comparable, if not slightly better, than Nikolaj Ehlers, who put up a 43 point pace at a year older than Laine will be.

Stanley towers over his peers at 6’7, and has a tonne of frame still to fill at 200 lbs. Stanley was the third highest scoring defender on his team, with 5 goals, 12 assists, and 17 points in 64 games.

From this chart, we can estimate the average historical market value when combining the 22nd and 36th picks. On average, the 22nd and 36th overall pick combines to about 32.7 points, given that a 1st overall pick is 100 points.
The 18th and the 79th combine for about 27.6 points.
This means the Jets lost about 4.6 points worth of value in the trade relative to historical trades. While 4.6 points may not seem huge, the 79th pick is historically only worth about 3.0 points. In other words, teams trading what the Jets did tend to gain a whole another third round pick in terms of value.

In terms of what to expect, there is a large range in possibility. If all things go perfectly, Stanley’s best case scenario would likely be a second pairing defender fairly similar to Tyler Myers, although I doubt Stanley would ever be as mobile. His size makes him a potential option for the third pair even if he significantly misses his ceiling, although the “tough third-pair” role has been disappearing to make way to more skilled depth players.
He is a project, however, and will likely take a few seasons to get to a NHL level, if he ever does. Realistically one would be looking at an ETA of 3-5 seasons, so do not get your hopes up too high for a Stanley-Myers pairing.

Scoring is not made to represent completely how good a player is, as there is more than scoring that goes into how good a player is. However, scoring has a relationship with those who are good at other things and also both prospect upside and safety are related.

After some house keeeping items (Pegula’s speech, the usual Bettman vs fans Kabuki booing), we were underway, and the atmosphere was cracking as Matthews’ name was announced. I was actually seated near two young Leaf fans that paid the pricely sum of $214 US via StubHub to witness that moment, and as much as it’s easy to crack on Leaf fans, I did admire their enthusiasm. 

Green carries all the primary tools needed in today’s NHL defensemen. He skates well in all four directions, can shift directions at ease, moves the puck well both in skating and passing, thinks quick and well, and is poised with the puck.

Cederholm has the size and skating ability to become an asset to the organization, but is a project who will need to make huge improvements upon his puck handling abilities and transition game in order to be an effective player.

The Manitoban native has some offensive instincts and has potential to be a depth contributor. His biggest asset in offense is his ability to skate the puck, but he is also a strong playmaker. His defensive game needs some work, although he has been improving in that facet. In fact, I’d say the defensive game issues are slightly exaggerated due to Stallard not being a very physical player, as he is still good in defensive zone positioning and moving the puck out of danger.

Berdin’s game is fairly raw, but with the right coaching he could potentially become the best netminder in the draft. Berdin’s raw abilities and Russian passport could play a role in why he fell so low in the draft, but another reasoning could be the meldonium scandal that disqualified Burden and his teammates from playing in the U18s this year.

When we combine the potential impacts of ice time usage and secondary assist variance, it is not unreasonable to suggest that Green may have been a 50-60 point scorer despite only putting up 35 points last season.
Next year we should expect Murphy to leave the Sea Dogs, so there is a large chance Green will be playing with Chabot on the top pair. It will be interesting to see how this has an impact on Green’s scoring.