Started from the bottom (six): Jets bottom six start off slow

Last night’s loss to the Los Angeles Kings aside, the Jets have started their season well. Nine games into the season, they are 5-3-1, just about keeping pace in the obscenely, painfully competitive Central Division.

This Jets team has always made up for what they lack in star power with depth and balance throughout the lineup. That isn’t a shot at Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien, or Blake Wheeler. It’s just that Tampa Bay might have as much name-brand star power on their second line as the Jets do on their whole roster.

But so far this season, the Jets have been decidedly unbalanced – especially at forward. While the top six has excelled, the Jets’ third and fourth lines have struggled. 

Trying to analyze line combinations can be tough. As line combinations get mixed up and shuffled, you often end up with many different three-man units, each with too little time playing together to be of any use. But Paul Maurice has been consistent with his lines: the groups of Ladd-Little-Wheeler, Perreault-Scheifele-Ehlers, Stafford-Lowry-Burmistrov, and Thorburn-Copp-Petan have largely remained unchanged since the season opener.

The orange bars show each player’s total 5 on 5 ice time, while the blue bars show the amount of that ice time spent with their regular linemates.

Paul Maurice’s attitude towards the forward lines this season seems to be “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Each Jets forward has spent the majority of their 5 on 5 ice time this season with their regular linemates – there has been very little shuffling of the forward lines. This should give us a big enough sample of ice time to reasonably compare lines.

To be fair to the Winnipeg staff, it’s easy to understand why they have refrained from mixing up their forward lines. The top two lines have been playing some really excellent hockey, and it would be hard to justify changing anything there. 

Wheeler, Little, and Ladd are as good as they have always been. The sun rises, the Jets’ first line is quietly excellent, and Evander Kane makes news in Winnipeg. Meanwhile, the second line of Perreault, Scheifele, and Ehlers has been lights out, combining for eight goals in nine games. For those counting, that’s just one fewer than the Anaheim Ducks have scored as a team.

On Sunday, when the Jets went down to the Wild moments after puck drop, the first line combined to tie the game up and then give the Jets the lead in the first four minutes of play. Less than ten minutes later, Nik Ehlers came down the right side of the ice on the rush, held the puck, and then ripped a shot over Darcy Kuemper’s shoulder.

But as much as the Jets’ top two lines have shone, the bottom six has disappointed. Even the third line of Burmistrov, Lowry, and Stafford have struggled – Stafford’s two goals against Minnesota notwithstanding.

And despite moving away from an enforcer-heavy fourth line for the first time in years, favouring Nic Petan over Anthony Peluso, the Winnipeg fourth line has been destroyed territorially in their limited minutes.

Drew Stafford is leading the Jets with five goals already this season. To the eye, the third line of Stafford, Burmistrov, and Lowry have had about an even split of good moments and bad. But they aren’t carrying play well: they have been outscored 6 goals to 3 when on the ice together, and have controlled less than 47 percent of all shot attempts on the ice.

The fact of the matter is this: Stafford, Burmistrov, and Lowry give the Jets three solid contributors; Nic Petan and Andrew Copp have each shown real promise as rookies; and Chris Thorburn is a prototypical “not good, but won’t hurt you” fourth liner. That’s a good group of forwards to make up a third and fourth line. But Alex Burmistrov has a 42.6 percent Corsi. The Jets’ bottom six isn’t working.

The top two lines have been too good to split up, but getting more out of the bottom six will be key for Winnipeg’s playoff hopes this year. Even if it’s just re-shuffling the deck chairs, the coaching staff should look at trying something new. Maybe Burmistrov would be more comfortable moving back to centre. Nic Petan might be able to do some of the fun Nic Petan things he did in the preseason if he got a chance on the third line. 

The Winnipeg bottom six is too good to get rolled over by the opposition forever; it’s up to the coaching staff to try to spark them. The past two games have shown some encouraging signs. Stafford’s second goal against the Wild, scored after a great move into the Minnesota crease, was on a shift with Andrew Copp and Chris Thorburn. And the third and fourth lines were the Jets’ best at controlling shot attempts against the Kings last night, with Peluso subbing in for Petan.

Maybe being given all this time to gel as lines will help. Maybe the third and fourth lines have already started to turn it around. But with new lines or old, the fact remains that the Jets need to get more out of their bottom six.