Slicing and Dicing the Jets: Andrew Copp 2015-2016

The Winnipeg Jets missed the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons since the move to Manitoba, and the 14th time over 16 seasons over franchise history. The season does not end for us though at Jets Nation.

Welcome to our series where we take an analytical approach, dissecting what went wrong with the Jets 2015-2016 season and how to improve the team for next year.

We turn our evidence-based breakdown of the Jets with Andrew Copp’s 2015-2016 season.

The Winnipeg Jets replaced veteran Jim Slater as there go-to fourth line centre with a 21-year-old rookie. While Copp didn’t eat a ton of minutes he did fairly well for his inagural season in the bigs.

The young centre provided some solid goal production relative to his minimal ice time, but I would be shocked if he matched or surpass his 12.7 personal shooting percentage, especially with no power play usage.

It’s unusual for teams to start a rookie on their fourth line, yet the Jets opened the season with two in Nic Petan and Andrew Copp. The two were placed with veteran forward Chris Thorburn, and struggled immensely.

Throughout the season Copp saw a variety of linemates with very mixed results. Most of Copp’s scoring also came from his time with the best performing line in terms of shot metrics with Copp. Four of Copp’s nine points in 5v5 situations came from his time with Petan and Joel Armia, where the Jets also controlled about 60 percent of shots.

Copp is also a perfect example of the uselessness in placing young forwards in “sheltered” third or fourth line roles. While Copp spent less time against the oppositions top lines, he spent even less time with the Jets. In the end, the linemates you play with matter far more than the lines your coach matches you against, because everyone still faces the top lines. It doesn’t matter as much for a player like Copp who is playing in a role the team wishes to develop him into, but this should be remembered for young scoring forwards like Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor, and (potentially) Patrick Laine.

Copp scored at a very solid rate for a fourth line forward, although both his NHLE historical scoring and on-ice percentages suggest there may be some inflation compared to what we should expect in the future.

While Copp’s two-way numbers are not overly flattering, Copp did extremely well for a young rookie who tended to play with some of the Jets’ worst forwards. He already was an upgrade in performance relative to Slater, and showed a ton of promise when with the Jets’ more skilled forwards like Petan, Armia, and Burmistrov.

Copp didn’t really see the power play, so those numbers are essentially meaningless in terms of evaluating Copp’s talents and abilities. He did do very well as a penalty killer, and hopefully will continue to do so next season as Maurice gives him more ice time.

Copp may not ever end up being anything more than a bottom-six player, but he’s already showing signs that he could be a valuable bottom-six piece as a solid fourth-line centre who can kill penalties.

Optimally the Jets would like to see Copp’s Corsi improve, but at 21-years-old that is already likely to happen with player development. Hopefully a better shot differential will equate to more chance generation with Copp on the ice, and would then keep his scoring afloat as his on-ice percentages regress.