Jets vs Oilers 05/21/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

The Winnipeg Jets have had some success over the years as an underdog against the Connor McDavid-powered Edmonton Oilers, but extending that trend might require defying the run of play. The Jets are +145 road underdogs and the Edmonton Oilers are -165 home favorites with a 5.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Friday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how sports betting works).

Since 2017-18, the Jets are 5-5 as an underdog against the Oilers, with the total finishing UNDER three times in the four most recent matchups. The Jets are also 9-8 in their last 17 games as an away underdog of +125 to +155 on the moneyline at sports betting sites, with the total finishing UNDER 17 times. The Oilers are 12-8 in their last 20 games as a -150 to -180 home favorite, with the UNDER hitting 13 times.

The Jets are ahead 1-0 in the best-of-seven North Division semifinal after a 4-1 win (with two empty-net goals) on Wednesday. The Oilers, per Natural Stat Trick, had a 64.4 expected goals-for percentage, or xGF%, with commensurate edges in scoring-chances share (64.4) and high-danger chances share (58.7). The Jets did not have a power play in Wednesday’s matchup, but are six-for-24 against Edmonton this season. The Oilers’ power play was zero-for-one on Wednesday and is eight-for-28 against Winnipeg this season.

The main between-games question with the Jets is the statuses of wing Nikolaj Ehlers and center Pierre-Luc Dubois, who both missed Wednesday’s game due to injury. Both are expected to take the morning skate. The counting stats for the Mark Scheifele-Kyle Connor-Blake Wheeler line were goosed by the empty-net goals and overall they had just a score-adjusted 34.2 xGF% in the five-on-five phase, according to MoneyPuck. Scheifele and Wheeler were still 1-2 among Jets forwards in expected goals, so the lack of offensive depth is a concern.

The Jets are 5-5 over their last 10 away playoff games with one day of rest. The average total in those games has been 6.0 goals.

Connor Hellebucyk saved 2.09 goals above expected on Wednesday, as the Jets goalie stopped 32 of 33 shots. The performance was a far cry from his regular-season statline – 2-5-0 record, 3.96 goals-against average and .877 save percentage – against Edmonton.

In spite of the defeat, the Oilers are 7-3 overall against the Jets this season, with a 24-16 edge in five-on-five goals. McDavid failed to record a point for just the 10th time all season, and the three-time NHL scoring champion is averaging 2.33 points in contests after being goose-egged. Edmonton reunited the McDavid-Leon Draisaitl-Jesse Puljujarvi line for a spell in Wednesday’s game, and they had an xGF% of close to 80 percent. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins led the Oilers in expected goals on Wednesday.

The Oilers are 4-1 in their last five home playoff games on one day of rest. The average total in those games has been 7.0.

Oilers goalie Mike Smith saved 0.62 goals below expected on Wednesday, stopping 18 of 20 Jets shots. Smith was 4-0-0 with a 2.06 GAA and .936 save percentage against Winnipeg during the regular season.