Jets Nation Prospect Profiles 2016: #2 Kyle Connor

We are in the dregs of summer, so we take a critical look at the Winnipeg Jets organizational cupboards and highlight who we feel are the Jets’ “Top 20 Prospects” when looking at a combination of potential and probability of positive impact for the franchise.

We continue our prospect profile to the Michigan alumni, Kyle Connor.

Kyle Connor was always a prospect I’ve been pretty found of, and ranked him fifth overall for the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. So, it is safe to say that I was not surprised to see Connor transition seamlessly into the the NCAA. What I did not expect was a historic season.

Connor started in the USHL as a centre, but was moved to wing part way through his sophomore season. The young forward was able to use his elite speed and high-end shot to rack up the points in the USHL as a a 16-year-old. Connor ended up sixth in points per game and second in total points, despite not being draft eligible. Connor improved upon that scoring rate the next year, coming first in total points and third in points per game.

However, it was not until his rookie NCAA season that many fans started to take notice. In what was a historic season for the NCAA, Connor was able to lead the league in both point totals and points per game, while averaging just shy of four shots per game.

Kyle Connor fits well with the Jets make up in that he has speed, and then some. Similar to Nikolaj Ehlers, Connor thrives off of using his elite speed and shiftiness to separate himself from defenders. He can make complex plays while in his top gear, which makes Connor all the more dangerous.

To keep with the Nikolaj Ehlers comparison, both have excellent shots and vision, but I would lean towards Connor being more of a natural goalscorer at the NHL level over Ehlers. Connor is exceptionally adept in getting to the right places at the right time, especially with being able to instantly accelerate away from defenders, in order to find himself in scoring position.

The one issue to Connor’s game is that he still needs to fill out his frame for strength purposes. While Connor’s defensive game is not a negative, adding strength to his already high-end speed would allow him to forecheck more efficiently and then garner more opportunities to score. If he were able to do so, Connor could be an effective player for the Jets in all situations, especially as a dangerous penalty killer.

The statistical model pGPS states that there was only one player in the NCAA to ever have a similar statistical profile to Kyle Connor. That player was Paul Karyia.

To be honest, though, I believe Connor’s performance last season may overstate the player’s true ability. While I have been a big fan of Connor for quite some while and view him as better than his original draft position, I would still view Connor as the lesser of the three, between Connor, Ehlers, and Patrik Laine.

So while pGPS assures us that Connor is most likely an elite NHL player, albeit with low confidence sample size, I would suggest that realistically Connor is more likely to peak as a plus top-six winger who will likely be the preferred trigger man on the Jets’ secondary power play and a lethal threat with his speed on the penalty kill.