Hockey at the end of the day is all about wins and losses, but how a team gets those wins and loses can give us an idea of future performance. I will be doing a weekly look at the Jet’s 5vs5 offense, defense and their special teams play.

Before I go into this week’s breakdown, here is a refresher on the types of numbers we’ll be using.

All stats are adjusted for game state and venue. I like using adjusted stats because it helps to account for game flow and home ice advantage.

Here is a brief breakdown of some of the underlying stats that I find are a helpful addition to watching the game in evaluating team play:

CF60/CA60– All shot attempts (Corsi) for and against per hour.
FF60/FA60– All unblocked shot attempts (Fenwick) for and against per hour.
SF60/SA60– All shots on net per hour
xGF60/xGA60– All expected goals for and against per hour. Expected goals are like a super corsi. It is all shot attempts but they are weighted by their likelihood of ending up as goals.
Fsh%– Percentage of unblocked shots taken by a team that are goals.
xFsh%– The expected shooting percentage of the team.
Fsv%– Percentage of unblocked shots taken against the team that are saves.
xFsv%– Expected save percentage of unblocked shot against the team.

If you have any questions about any of these terms, or advanced and adjusted stats in general, feel free to ask in the comments below or reach out to us on Twitter either through JetsNation or myself.

All stats are provided by our friends over at Corsica.hockey.

Now, on to a review of this past week..

The Winnipeg Jets are a very talented offensive team and have scored 2.0 goals a game at 5vs5 which ranks 14th in the NHL.

The numbers suggest that the Jets seem to have trouble generating both shot volume and shot quality ranking near the bottom in virtually every category. So how are the Jets ranking in the middle of the NHL pack in scoring goals? They have shot the puck well so far this season which you can see by Fsh% – an indication that opposing goalies have had a tough time stopping shots that the Jets have taken.

The Jets have struggled on offense so far into this young season, but their individual shooting talent has kept them afloat. They dump the puck in far too often and seem to value offensive zone time over shot volume. They have also received zero production from their bottom six forward group. Lastly, the defensive system they are currently running seems to hurt their ability to transition to offense (more on that in my defensively breakdown).

The Jets are a poor defending team and give up far too many goals and chances. On the year so far, the Jets have given up 2.6 goals a game at 5vs5 which puts them at 29th in the NHL.

The defensive numbers actually don’t look that bad, but few things stand out. First, the Jets will give up shot volume but exchange that for a focus on limiting shot quality. Second, they block a lot of shots. Third, the  Jets goaltending hasn’t been good and it doesn’t look like it’s a quality of shot issue considering they are 14th in the league in xFsv%.

When I look at those numbers and watch the game there is a disconnect. I don’t think the Jets are a bad defending team, I think it’s a case of the Jets defending far too much.

The Jets play a man to man/zone hybrid system in their half of the ice and collapse to the front of the net. This concerns me on two fronts. The first is that trying to keep everything to the outside (along the boards and at the blue line) gives teams so much zone time and space. Teams are far too talented and they will make you pay in due time. The second concern is that the Jets roster is just not designed to wait (and wait, and wait) until a puck battle is created and then hope to win the 1 on 1 puck battle to regain possession. Teams have already adjusted to this strategy and send player support right away to create a puck battle in their favor with little risk knowing the rest of the Jets are collapsing to the crease.

The last concern over the Jets defense is about the transition game. Transition starts with the breakout and puck support on those breakouts, but the Jets have really struggled with the puck support side of things. Second is how passive the Jets are at defending their own blueline. They are more than happy to push teams to the outside and give up controlled zone entries. This has hurt the Jets transition offense and lead to teams getting even more zone time.

Jets PP is running at 17.4% and is 17th in the NHL which is ok, but needs to improve.

Here, the Jets seem to favor shot volume over quality and have been a little unlucky shooting the puck.

The Jets like to load up the big bomb from the point and have tried to force the big one timer a little too much so far this season. Moving the set up to below the goal line would help open up shooting lanes for the one timers they are looking for.

The Jets are flat out bad on the PK running at 72% which is the worst in the NHL sitting at 31st overall.

The underlying Stats:

Sometimes the narrative is either wrong, or is correct but with a few caveats. In this case, the narrative is not wrong at all. The Jets are the worst team in the league killing penalties and have been lucky that their goaltending has been ok.

It’s ugly. The Jets seem to be playing a super passive penalty kill where they just collapse to the crease and pray the puck hits them.

Jets have a lot of issues to address if they want to make the playoffs. The good news is it’s still really early and at a record of 4-3 they’ve managed to do fairly well despite the issues. They set to have a good year if they can clean up some of their problems defending and in the transition game.