Celebrate: Ondrej Pavelec named NHL first star

Ondrej Pavelec was named the NHL’s first start of the week after a solid performance, going a perfect 3-0-0 and posting a 0.970 save percentage.

Goalies are voodoo and there are always ups and downs, but how fantastic has Pavelec’s recent performance been?

Check after the jump to see.

Over the last stretch of five games, Ondrej Pavelec has posted a 0.964 save percentage. That is the fifth highest five game save percentage of his entire career.

The arrow above shows where Pavelec’s last five game spread sits relative to the entirety of his career.

For context, z-score (assuming normal distribution) estimates about a 1.1 percent chance that Pavelec puts up a five game save percentage that good or higher. That’s about a one in every 87 chance.

How to react to this information is up to you as the fan.

A five game performance is far from predictive. Over a set of 15 games, a 0.900 talent-level goaltender will outperform a 0.920 goaltender about one out of six times. It is because of this many say goalies are voodoo.

No one can determine from these numbers whether Pavelec has improved his game and whether he has surpassed Michael Hutchinson as the better netminder. After all, Pavelec has posted similar numbers in a small stretch before, as have many other below average goaltenders.

These numbers do describe how Pavelec performed. Pavelec stood on his head, was recognized for that, and this should be celebrated by Jets fans. The Jets needed Pavelec to step up and he did.

Pavelec, like all goalies, can go on stretches of both hot and cold, but ultimately tend to regress closer to his true-talent level.

Pavelec stops a career average of 90.6 percent of shots the game after greater than 0.920 performance. He also stops a career average of 90.5 percent the game after less than 0.900 performance. In other words, Pavelec’s recent hot streak does not change the chances that Pavelec will perform well or poorly over the next set of games.

The Jets needed goaltending to keep them in and they will need goaltending to get them in. Here’s to hoping he and Hutchinson do just that.

Expect regression while quixotically cheering against it. – Dominik of LHH