Call the Copp: Predicting Andrew’s Next Contract

Andrew Copp has been a reliable staple on the Jets third line for the past 5 seasons after being drafted out of the University of Michigan in 4^th round of the 2013 NHL Draft.  Back in the summer of 2019, the Jets and Copp had a battle over his 3^rd NHL contract.  The Jets offered a 2-year, $1.5M AAV contract, while Copp had asked for a 1-year, $2.9M contract.  In the end, an arbitrator came in basically right down the middle, awarding Copp a 2-year, $2.28M contract.  Now 2 years later, Copp is having a career season, and the Jets will be in a similar position to where they were 2 years ago, trying to keep a valuable piece of their lineup without overpaying for a player coming off a career season.

Copp has been a staple on the Jets 3^rd line over the last 4 seasons, playing mostly with Adam Lowry as his centreman.  In the 3 seasons prior to 2020-21, he had averaged right around 0.37 points per game, while seeing his average ice time increase year over year to a career high of 17:42 per game last season.  He has also consistently been relied on as a defensive presence on the 3^rd line.  Among the regular Jets forwards, he had the 4^th lowest OZ start% in 17-18 (44.7%), the 3^rd lowest OZ start% in 18-19 (49.5%), and the 4^th lowest OZ start% in 19-20 (47.4%).  Copp’s combination of offensive ability and defensive savvy makes him one of the Jets most important forwards.

In 2020/21, Copp has broken out offensively.  Copp has set career highs in goals (12), points (28), powerplay goals (5), and powerplay points (9).  His stats were elevated by a huge 4 goal game in a 5-1 win over Vancouver back on March 24^th.

His season this year has brought up the million-dollar question.  Is this offensive outburst a 1-year aberration, or is this offensive production going to be more of the norm going forward?  The answer to that question will define how much Kevin Cheveldayoff is willing to break the bank for Copp. 

 

When reviewing the stats since 2017-18, 6 centres emerge as comparables in various forms to Andrew Copp.  The best comparable of the 6 is Tampa Bay centre Blake Coleman.  Coleman was acquired by Tampa at the 2020 trade deadline and was an instrumental piece in getting the Lightning over the top to win the Stanley Cup.  Coleman and Copp have similar physical statures, and provide solid production in a 3^rd line role for their respective teams.  Coleman signed a 3 year, $1.8 million AAV contract when he was 26 (the same age as Copp is currently) with New Jersey.

 

When looking at the summary stats, 3 other comparables jump out.  They are Scott Laughton of the Flyers, Nick Bonino of the Bruins, and Derek Ryan of the Flames.  Laughton currently makes $2.3 million per year, Bonino makes $4.1 million, and Ryan makes $3.125 million.

Digging into the possession/shot attempt stats, two other comparables jump out.  They are Lars Eller of the Capitals, and Nazem Kadri of the Avalanche.  Eller currently makes $3.5 million, while Kadri makes $4.5 million.

Based on the comparables, the contract lengths and AAVs are illustrated below:

Based on the numbers above, and the conception that the Jets have to pay a slight premium to keep free agents, I would be prepared to sign Copp for 4 years at an AAV of $3,500,000.  This contract would take Copp up until his age 30 season, and give Copp a chance at one more long contract when he hits 30.  For the Jets, it would give them some cost certainty through the next 4 years while the salary cap stays relatively flat.

What do you think?  Would you be ok with the Jets signing this contract?  Do you think it is essential for Copp to stay in Winnipeg long-term?  Would you rather see Copp go to arbitration a second time?  Let me know in the comments.