Bodog: Paul Maurice among likely coach firings

Online gambling site Bodog has released betting lines on the first NHL coach to get the axe this season. Jets coach Paul Maurice made the cut at number six on their list, with 7/1 odds to be the first coach fired this season.

In two and a half seasons with the Jets, Maurice has steered the franchise to a 98-79-26 regular season record and one playoff series. But rather than pushing beyond the first round after the franchise’s first playoff berth, last year’s Jets crashed and burned to a 78-point season.

Is Maurice’s job really at risk this season? Should it be? Read on after the jump.

There were two pretty distinct reactions on twitter to Maurice’s inclusion on Bodog’s list. Out-of-town media seemed to largely be on the “yeah, sounds about right” train; meanwhile, Jets fans…

The consensus around Winnipeg media and fans is that both GM Kevin Cheveldayoff and Maurice still have plenty of rope left with ownership. Maurice is operating under eminently achievable expectations, coaching a roster whose youth is a built-in excuse.

If Maurice’s job does eventually come into question, it will have as much to do with management as the job he’s doing. The Jets organization has been preaching draft-and-develop for what seems like forever. Eventually it’s going to have to start translating into wins; if not, firing a coach is the last weapon in the arsenal of the embattled executive. But this is the year of the kids, and as long as Laine, Connor, Ehlers and Morrissey look to be improving, Maurice will continue to get a lot of rope.

So how warm is Paul Maurice’s seat right now? One fire emoji out of ten.

A completely different question, though, is whether his seat should be feeling warm.

Maurice has been a clear upgrade on his predecessor, Claude Noel. His Jets teams have been effective at even-strength, with an energetic forecheck and aggressive neutral-zone system. In his two full seasons in Winnipeg, the Jets have controlled more than 51% of shots and goals at even-strength. 

He also does shit like this when he gets steamed up:

On the other hand, Maurice has some roster deployment quirks that have driven fans crazy (Pavelec, Thorburn, Peluso, etc.) and has led some of the worst special-teams units in the league. The Jets have consistently taken more penalties than they draw, and are a bottom-ten team on the powerplay and penalty kill.

It’s hard to pin down what falls on Maurice and what lands on the roster he’s given. The powerplay seems like his most notable failure: it has been inexplicably impotent throughout Maurice’s tenure. With a host of legitimate weapons like Buff, Laine, Scheifele, Ehlers, and Wheeler, there is no excuse for another year of inept play on the man advantage.

Even with those struggles in mind, should a well-liked coach who seems to coax favourable results out of his team at even-strength be on the hot seat? Probably not, right? Special teams systems can (and maybe should) be addressed by a dedicated assistant coach. And Maurice’s player deployment choices can be easily addressed by removing those options from him, circa Ondrej Pavelec. 

When the Jets go on a losing streak at some point this season, Paul Maurice’s job will become a hot topic. He’s been around for long enough with so little success that the chatter is inevitable. Bodog’s odds aside, it’s hard to see how firing Maurice this season would help the Jets, especially given the paucity of good replacements mid-season. 

PoMo is a good coach. Don’t fire him unless you have a better one.