JNGD.R3G5 Flight Plan: The Beginning Of The End?

5 years ago

The Jets are down in the Western Conference Final series three games to one to the Vegas Golden Knights, and while the task ahead of them to win the next three games seems like a monumental one, it’s important to keep in mind that there is only one game today and that’s the only one the Jets should – and likely are – concerned with.

Vegas Golden Knights
@
Winnipeg Jets

Western Conference Finals – Game Five
Golden Knights lead series 3-1

May 20, 2018 – Puck drop: 2:00 PM CST
Bell MTS Place – Winnipeg, MB
TV: CBC, NBC, TVAS – Radio: TSN 1290

The Rundown…

What did the Jets do wrong in game four?

Two things keep happening to the Jets in this series that continue to be their ultimate downfall. For starters, they get off to bad starts. In game two they feel behind 2-0 after the first period. In game three they gave up a goal 35 seconds into the game and game four saw them give up a goal 2:25 into the game. The second thing that seems to keep happening that takes the wind of out the Jets sails is they keep giving up goals right after they score themselves.

Goals in the last minute are always bad, but giving up goals within a minute or two of scoring are absolute back breakers.

What did the Knights do right in game four?

As just mentioned, the things that have been doing in the Jets in this series have been what has helped the Knights. They’ve gotten on top of the Jets early in each victory and they’ve responded well after giving up goals. Beyond that and the play of Marc-Andre Fleury, the Knights aren’t exactly dominating on the ice as they’ve out-shot and out chanced in each of the last three games, but they’ve been the ultimate opportunists in this series and now have a chance to finish it off on the road.

How do the Knights win game five?

It’s tempting to copy and paste what has been said for games two, three and four into here because nothing had changed. The Knights have been great at taking advantage of Jets mistakes, but it sure would behoove them to push their offense a bit more and try to not lean quite so much on Marc-Andre Fleury. The Vegas defense has been ok at keeping the Jets to the outside of their zone, but the Jets have found ways to still generate scoring chances. It’s either hope that luck holds out one more time, or come up with your best offensive game of the series.

How do the Jets win game five?

The Jets have lost three games in a row playing pretty much the same style of hockey that got them 50+ wins this season and therein lies where a lot of frustration for both players and fans alike lies. Sure, secondary scoring is needed, and the defense has to do a better job in getting the puck out of their zone cleanly, and Connor Hellebuyck needs to come up with a game where he is Marc-Andre Fleury’s equal even if that means making absurd saves. As Blake Wheeler mentioned after game four, we’ve seen the Jets play games like they did in game four and come away with wins.

So at this point why change anything in the gameplan? Just treat this like a one-game ‘winner take all’ type playoff contest and hope that Vegas runs out of the good fortune they’ve had recently.

What Others Are Saying…

Knights On Ice took a look at that persistent Vegas forechecking and just how it’s been at the heart of the Knights success the last three games:

Chalking up the Knights’ success on the forecheck to effort and quick decision making might sound like too simple of a description, but it truly is what they’re doing. It also doesn’t hurt that Marc-Andre Fleury is playing out of his mind, but that’s for another post. In the meantime, appreciate the simple greatness that is the Knights’ relentless forecheck.

The Knights are winning the “resiliency battle” according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal:

The list of reasons that Vegas as an expansion NHL team is one win from an implausible trip to the Stanley Cup Final is immeasurable, although the guy in goal tickling people and rubbing the crossbar and doing the wave is pretty good, and yet one that has stood out like Marc-Andre Fleury at a fan party is its capacity to counter an opponent’s success.

Meanwhile, Mark Spector over at Sportsnet went over some of the reasons the Jets find themselves in this predicament:

The Jets haven’t played poorly. They just haven’t played well enough to beat a Vegas team that doesn’t make many mistakes, and has the best goalie in the National Hockey League playoffs behind them when they do.

Player ratings courtesy Corsica.Hockey

Winnipeg Jets Lines

LW	C	RW
KYLE CONNOR RATING: 76.6#23 LW	MARK SCHEIFELE RATING: 82.8#6 C	BLAKE WHEELER RATING: 81.9#4 RW
NIKOLAJ EHLERS RATING: 75.9#29 LW	PAUL STASTNY RATING: 76.8#34 C	PATRIK LAINE RATING: 83.1#3 RW
BRANDON TANEV RATING: 70.0#122 LW	ADAM LOWRY RATING: 72.4#90 C	BRYAN LITTLE RATING: 72.6#65 RW
MATHIEU PERREAULT RATING: 74.4#52 LW	ANDREW COPP RATING: 71.0#138 C	JOEL ARMIA RATING: 72.2#70 RW

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
JOSH MORRISSEY RATING: 73.6#35 LD	JACOB TROUBA RATING: 78.0#14 RD
TOBIAS ENSTROM RATING: 71.5#93 LD	DUSTIN BYFUGLIEN RATING: 81.4#3 RD
BEN CHIAROT RATING: 71.6#89 LD	TYLER MYERS RATING: 75.1#28 RD

GOALIES
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK RATING: 76.1#9 G1	STEVE MASON RATING: 71.8#38 G2

Vegas Golden Knights Lines

LW	C	RW
JONATHAN MARCHESSAULT RATING: 82.4#7 LW	WILLIAM KARLSSON RATING: 80.4#15 C	REILLY SMITH RATING: 78.4#8 RW
JAMES NEAL RATING: 74.6#38 LW	ERIK HAULA RATING: 74.8#47 C	TOMAS TATAR RATING: 72.1#75 RW
RYAN CARPENTER RATING: 71.8#81 LW	CODY EAKIN RATING: 70.6#148 C	ALEX TUCH RATING: 74.1#41 RW
TOMAS NOSEK RATING: 69.0#146 LW	PIERRE-ÉDOUARD BELLEMARE RATING: 69.7#164 C	RYAN REAVES RATING: 68.4#142 RW

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
BRAYDEN MCNABB RATING: 73.5#38 LD	NATE SCHMIDT RATING: 76.6#15 RD
SHEA THEODORE RATING: 75.8#22 LD	DERYK ENGELLAND RATING: 72.1#60 RD
LUCA SBISA RATING: 70.7#113 LD	COLIN MILLER RATING: 75.6#24 RD