Connor Hellebuyck and the Winnipeg Jets will look to respond when they return home to play a critical Game 5 versus the St. Louis Blues Wednesday evening.

The Jets were outscored by a combined margin of 12-3 in Games 3 and 4, but may regain some confidence when they return home to Canada Life Centre where they are 2-0 in the series and went 30-7-4 in the regular season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

In the 26 regular season games that followed the 4 Nations Face-Off break, the St. Louis Blues led all NHL teams with a goal-per-game average of 3.81. From an analytical perspective, they greatly outperformed expectations in that span as they generated only 2.84 xGF/60 and led the NHL by a significant margin, scoring on 14.17% of shots taken.

In this series, the Blues have generated just 2.15 xGF/60, which is the lowest rate of any of the 16 teams in Round 1. They have averaged just 23.64 shots-for per 60 and have done well to get the most out of their chances.

By no means am I a believer that analytics are the be-all and end-all and can accurately quantify every factor, and that’s certainly the case in this series. It is still interesting to consider just how opportunistic the Blues have been with their offensive chances, though, given how modest their offensive process looks statistically.

It looks like a logical answer is that the Blues have had some favourable luck to see so many medium/low-danger chances find their way into the net, but they are doing a great job of making life tough for Hellebuyck and getting the most out of their offensive zone time as a result.

It’s becoming harder to dispute the fact that Hellebuyck has not been nearly as sharp as he was in the regular season in this series, but on a goal-by-goal basis it appears he was once again not as awful in Game 4 as his final stat-line suggests.

Jake Neighbours’ game-tying goal at the end of the first period came on a high quality redirect with several bodies out front. If you really want to nitpick, you could say maybe Hellebuyck could potentially have been farther out in his crease, but it was a pretty standard goal overall.

Tyler Tucker’s go-ahead goal midway through the second period came after a perfectly timed flash screen from Oskar Sundqvist, and was placed in a perfect spot on the other side of the screen. Another one that probably doesn’t get a second glance from a goaltending perspective if not for the fact that so many comparable goals have found their way by Hellebuyck over the last two seasons.

Brayden Schenn made it 3-1 with an ugly goal on somewhat of a broken play after the Blues generated a mini 3-on-2 down low on the tail end of a power play opportunity. Hellebuyck tried to break up Colton Parayko’s initial pass and was left out of position after the puck sat out front.

Justin Faulk’s 4-1 goal was a good encapsulation of how nothing seemed to break the Jets’ way in Games 3 and 4. While it came on another point shot with a body out front, Neal Pionk had his man effectively boxed out and Faulk’s shot, which would have gone wide, banked off Pionk and in.

Robert Thomas’s 5-1 goal was probably the worst in terms of a defensive breakdown from the Jets’ side, as the Blues’ best player had plenty of time out front to make a move on a semi-breakaway. It was not well played by Hellebuyck by any means, but not an egregious goal to give up by any stretch of the imagination.

Jordan Binnington was rock-solid in Game 4, stopping 30 of 31 shots faced and finishing with a +1.31 GSAx rating. He holds a save percentage of .907 in the series, and will start in Game 5.

The Blues will remain without Dylan Holloway in this matchup, and suffered a notable loss in Game 4 as Tucker suffered an injury, after offering steady play once being inserted after the team’s Game 1 loss.

The Jets will obviously be feeling frustrated and concerned with the way that Games 3 and 4 of the series played out, and the coaching staff will surely have tirelessly reviewed how a defensive juggernaut in the regular season allowed 12 goals across two critical games prior to this matchup.

As outlined above, it does seem as though the Blues have had a combination of good luck on shot attempts finding their way through traffic and in, but their defenders have also often had too much time to release those looks into traffic. Chances are we will see the Jets’ weak-side winger try to play a little higher up in the offensive zone in this game and attempt to press up a little higher prior to D-to-D passes in the offensive zone.

The Jets will certainly be focused on cleaner box-outs in this matchup as well, but Faulk’s goal in Game 4 was a good example of how getting bodies to the front is dangerous regardless of the quality of box out, though it was also a highly fortuitous bounce.

Offensively, the Jets have not been overly dominant in this series, as Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor have been the only two skaters that have been overly productive. They will get a significant offensive boost tonight as Gabriel Vilardi is set to return to his regular role on the top line and top power play, which will slot Alex Iafallo onto a second line that has not been effective in this series.

The Jets hold a 58.37% expected goal share, and based on average shot location, have statistically created the higher quality shots in this series. It’s been the minor details from each side that have allowed the Blues to do so much more offensively despite managing fewer chances, but it does still seem hard to believe the Blues’ current offensive process will prove this effective the rest of the way.

There’s no disputing that the Jets had some tough luck in Games 3 and 4, which made the scorelines even worse than they deserved to be. The Blues are doing a good job of getting bodies out front for point shots, but those types of plays are still finding their ways in at an alarming rate that is not likely to be sustained, let alone if the Jets do a better job of pressuring point shots and clearing out bodies out front.

In terms of sides, it would still be betting on St. Louis or passing for me in this matchup, as the Jets offence has looked relatively flat, while the Blues have been opportunistic. While I do believe the Jets were not as bad in Games 3 and 4 as the final scores suggested, it still feels hard to consider backing them when they are still so heavily favoured.

There does look to be value backing the first period to feature under 1.5 goals at -139, as this game seems likely to be a tight-checking, low-event affair. The Jets have not been as bad defensively as the numbers suggest, and Hellebuyck should be able to author a better performance, potentially aided by some more reasonable puck luck.

Binnington has looked sharp in this series though, and Winnipeg’s offensive play has been fairly muted for several months now, even prior to the loss of Nikolaj Ehlers.