The Winnipeg Jets will look to respond to a disappointing performance when they take on the St. Louis Blues in Game 4 of their first-round matchup Sunday afternoon.

The Jets were pummeled 7-2 in their first road game of the series on Friday but will certainly still return home for Game 5 in high spirits if they can earn a split. Despite the Jets suffering a convincing loss in Game 3, oddsmakers actually consider the Jets a much heavier favorite in Game 4.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

As I outlined ahead of Game 3, the Jets were in a tough situational spot, as teams that are looking to stave off going down 3-0 in a series have fared extremely well historically. While it was a logical matchup to expect the absolute best out of the Blues, the Jets certainly will not feel as though they were overly sharp in Game 3, though it was also a night where every mistake resulted in a goal against.

Connor Hellebuyck was tabbed with a pretty awful stat line in Game 3, finishing up with six goals against on 25 shots faced. On a goal-by-goal basis, it does seem fair to say he was only as bad as the team in front of him at worst.

The Blues went up 1-0 early after a fairly fortuitous bounce at the net left Pavel Buchnevich wide open out front. St. Louis had noted its intent to get traffic into the dirty areas, and it was rewarded right away with the game’s opening tally. St. Louis then recorded a beautiful power play goal only two minutes later, on another chance that Connor Hellebuyck certainly should not be expected to save.

Hellebuyck did make an egregious error at a bad time after a gaffe behind the net allowed the Blues to restore their three-goal lead, which was certainly quite deflating to the Jets bench given that they had just managed to pull within striking distance.

The Jets allowed 28 shots against and 2.86 expected goals. The ‘eye test’ would suggest they were a little worse than that defensively, as the nature of their breakdowns was much worse than we have typically seen this season.

Gabriel Vilardi sounds like a true game-time decision in this matchup, and his eventual return could provide a huge boost to the team. While most would agree that Alex Iafallo has filled into Vilardi’s roles relatively well, the Jets offensive depth is looking like a concern right now with Nikolaj Ehlers also sidelined.

First and foremost, the Jets need to be a team that limits true breakdowns in front of the goal and gives Hellebuyck a chance to win marginal games. While they finished as one of the league’s top offensive teams overall this season, they were drastically less effective offensively in the final third of the season. That was prior to the loss of Ehlers, too, who still doesn’t seem to get enough credit for being a truly dominant offensive play driver at his best.

Hellebuyck holds a -3.9 GSAx rating and .844 save percentage in the series, which are pretty eye-popping numbers considering his work in the regular season. While the Blues have not been territorially dominant by any means, it does still appear that Hellebuyck’s level has not fallen off as much as the statistics suggest.

In the final 41 games (second half) of the regular season, the Blues averaged 3.34 goals for per game, which ranked sixth in the league. In the same span, the Jets ranked 12th in goal per game average, and if Vilardi and Ehlers both remain sidelined, it seems fair to say the Blues might actually hold more offensive upside right now.

The Blues showed off their offensive prowess in Game 3, as they made several beautiful plays that led to ultra-dangerous chances in front of the goal. It feels as though it’s quite critical for the Jets’ top line of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, and Alex Iafallo to outperform St. Louis’s top line of Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas, and Jimmy Snuggerud right now, because the Blues’ second offensive unit of Jordan Kyrou, Jake Neighbours, and Brayden Schenn is a clear edge over what the Jets are offering, although that could change to some extent if Vilardi were to return.

Jordan Binnington has not been entirely dominant but has certainly been sharp enough to give his team an honest chance of winning each game. He holds a -0.7 GSAx rating and .877 save percentage so far in this series.

Both teams have shown plenty of fight from a physical perspective, and this series has certainly offered some throwback playoff hockey at times, and the Blues have done well to match a gritty Jets side in that department. Winning box-outs at the net-front without taking penalties will remain a key storyline in this matchup, as the Blues’ will continue to try and make life as tough as possible for Hellebuyck.

The Blues will remain without one key offensive piece in Dylan Holloway, who is still deemed week-to-week.

The Jets were not at their best in Game 3 and will certainly show up prepared to make the Blues have to really earn this win compared to Friday’s matchup.

Winnipeg was the better team in the first two games of the series, so it may not be time to panic, but it does seem that right now there are enough questions for me to believe the Blues are the more valuable betting side as +115 underdogs in this matchup.

The Blues were an excellent offensive team in the final half of the season and are capable of creating the types of chances that will always be finished at a high rate. Winnipeg is the better defensive team, and Hellebuyck is the best goaltender in the league, but the Blues offensive upside suggests this series could become a lengthy battle ending in 6 or 7 games.

At +115, I feel the betting value lies with the Blues on home ice, and would bet them down to +110 or +105 if Vilardi is confirmed to be sidelined.