After earning a pair of wins in closely contested games on home ice to start the series, the Jets will look to grab a 3-0 stranglehold when the series shifts to the Enterprise Center Thursday evening.

The notion that teams tend to author their absolute best performance when down two games to none in a series is supported by the betting results, as teams that enter Game 3 down 2-0 in a best-of-seven series are 26-19 since the 2015-16 postseason, and betting them in each of those matchups would yield a +14.8% ROI.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

While Jets fans may have liked to see a more convincing win in Game 2 overall, Winnipeg’s defensive play was quite excellent, and Connor Hellebuyck stopped all of the shots that he was supposed to en route to a 2-1 victory. Prior to that game, I outlined why Hellebuyck’s Game 1 performance was not anything to freak out over, and he looked true to form in stopping 21 of 22 shots faced.

The Blues are a solid defensive team, and scoring goals on Jordan Binnington in meaningful games is no easy task. The Jets should also continue to be highly capable of winning plenty of low-scoring games this postseason based on their strong defensive play and Hellebuyck’s dominance.

With those things said, the Jets’ offensive upside does seem quite limited right now, and a potential return from Gabriel Vilardi in Game 3 or 4 could prove highly impactful. Alex Iafallo has done a solid job since taking over Vilardi’s roles, but with Iafallo on the top line and Nikolaj Ehlers sidelined due to injury, the Jets’ offensive upside further down the lineup is currently a concern.

Since the 4 Nations Face-Off, the Jets have scored just 2.81 goals per game, and their lack of finishing ability further down the lineup is currently putting a lot of stress on the team to be razor-sharp defensively. Winnipeg’s recent lack of production from further down the lineup also could be viewed as a point that truly illustrates how good this team really is, though, as with two critical top-six forwards out of the lineup, it is still a very formidable side.

Ehlers did not make the trip to St. Louis and does not appear to be close to returning. Vilardi is a game-time decision, and will likely be reinserted onto the top line and top power-play unit if he is to return to the lineup.

It’s not some well-kept secret that getting bodies to the front of the net is one effective way to find success versus a goaltender of Hellebuyck’s quality, and it’s no surprise to hear the Blues preaching the need to make life more difficult for Hellebuyck. The Jets did a good job of clearing out the net-front in Game 2, and did an excellent job of limiting chances coming after passes through the Royal Road.

The Colorado Avalanche did a great job of taking away Hellebuyck’s vision last postseason and were also able to create a number of high-quality looks coming after plays across the ice in the offensive zone. This year’s Jets side has been better at preventing plays through the middle of the ice than last year’s, so it’s probably a much more attainable goal for the Blues to create more havoc in front for point shots.

Based on today’s morning skate, Alexandre Texier appears to be coming into the lineup and will play on the third line alongside Oskar Sundqvist and Zac Bolduc. While it’s a minor move, Texier has solid finishing ability for a bottom-six winger and could prove to be a useful addition to the lineup.

As I’ve outlined previously, home-ice advantage has not been overly meaningful in the playoffs looking at the actual results, but one reason it could prove particularly useful for the Blues is it will allow head coach Jim Montgomery try and use last change to get better head-to-head matchups to play against the Jets’ top line, which has torched St. Louis in this series.

This series was not expected to be a cakewalk for the Jets, and while it’s a pretty fair result that the Jets are up 2-0, the games have been close enough to think that St. Louis is capable of avoiding a 3-0 hole in what is essentially a do-or-die Game 3.

The historical betting numbers illustrate how tough it is to put any team down 3-0 in a series, and this matchup looks to be a strong opportunity to buy into that trend with the Blues priced as slight underdogs.

At -105 or better, I see value backing the Blues to find a way to win tonight’s matchup and claw their way into this series.