by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
Captain Blake Wheeler is back as the Winnipeg Jets try to break their home-ice hex against the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Jets are +115 home underdogs and the Toronto Maple Leafs are -135 away favorites with a 6.0-goal total on the NHL odds for Thursday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The Jets are 8-6 in their last 14 home games, and the total finished UNDER eight times at online betting sites. They are, however, 0-5 in their last five home games against Toronto, with the total going OVER in seven of their last 10 matchups at Bell MTS Arena. Toronto is 5-6 in its last 11 games as a favorite on the road, with the total going UNDER six times with two pushes.
Maple Leafs vs Jets | OddsShark Matchup Report
The Jets are 3-2-2 so far in the season series with a 13-11 edge in five-on-five goals. Winnipeg has lived on the margins against Toronto, overcoming their disparities in expected goals-for percentage, or xGF% (39.7), scoring-chances share (41.7) and high-danger chances share (37.1). Head-to-head, Toronto’s power play is two-for-19 and Winnipeg’s is six-for-21.
The Maple Leafs are 28-13-5, but are just 0-3-2 in their last five games. Like Winnipeg, Toronto will also have a new top-end winger, as center Auston Matthews and right wing Mitch Marner are projected to have trade deadline acquisition Nick Foligno join a line that has been outscored 7-2 in the five-on-five phase during the losing streak. Toronto’s John Tavares-Alex Kerfoot-William Nylander second line has been reliable of late. Despite their losing skid and some shaky goaltending of late, Toronto, which last played on Tuesday, is 10-4-1 in away games with one day of rest.
Since March 23, Toronto ranks second in the NHL in five-on-five xGF% (60.6) but 11th in goals-for percentage (56.0). The Maple Leafs are 12th in goals per game (3.00) and 22nd in goals against (3.07). Their power play ranks 29th (8.3 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 27th (74.1).
Jack Campbell, who is 11-2-1 with a 2.24 goals-against average and .919 save percentage, is expected to start in goal. Campbell has allowed 14 goals in his last four starts.
The Jets, who are 27-15-3, have been off for four days and expect to start with a Mark Scheifele-Kyle Connor-Wheeler first line, complemented by a Paul Stastny-Nikolaj Ehlers-Pierre-Luc Dubois second line. The Jets had just a 32.1 xGF% during their 3-0 defeat against the Edmonton Oilers last Saturday, but they are 6-2 in their last eight games after a sub-40 xGF% showing. Ehlers, incidentally, has five goals against Toronto this season. Andrew Copp will drop down to the third line with Wheeler’s return. The Jets are 12-5-3 in their last 20 home games with two or more days off.
Winnipeg is 21st in xGF% (47.2) and third in GF% (61.0) within the past 30 days. During this span, the Jets are 11th in goals per game (3.08 per game) and fourth in goals against (2.15). Their power play ranks fifth (27.3 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 15th (82.6).
Connor Hellebuyck, who is 21-12-3 with a 2.50 GAA and .919 save percentage, has allowed two or fewer goals in three of his last five starts.
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