Slicing and Dicing the Jets: Ben Chiarot 2015-2016

The Winnipeg Jets missed the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons since the move to Manitoba, and the 14th time over 16 seasons over franchise history. The season does not end for us though at Jets Nation.

Welcome to our series where we take an analytical approach, dissecting what went wrong with the Jets 2015-2016 season and how to improve the team for next year.

We turn our evidence-based breakdown of the Jets with Ben Chiarot’s 2015-2016 season.

Chiarot improved his point totals from the previous season, moving from 8 to 10, but it took an additional 30 games to reach that point.

Chiarot started as a regular on the Jets last season, after being an injury call up the previous year. Injuries and struggles eventually found Chiarot losing time and games in what was a bit of a step back season for the sophomore.

Last season Chiarot played well with Dustin Byfuglien, as everyone does since it is Byfuglien, and this may have placed expectations for some a tad high. Chiarot once again had the Big Buff as his primary defensive partner, but also had a large variety of other partners throughout the season.

Despite playng with Byfuglien often, Chiarot was never used more than a #3, and usually as a third pairing defender. Paul Maurice accomplished this by placing Jacob Trouba with Byfuglien during high-leverage situations and minutes while sitting their partners Mark Stuart and Chiarot.

Not surprising, without playing attached to the hip of Byfuglien, Chiarot found all his previously strong performance metrics fall hard. Chiarot produced very little offense, although expected Fenwich shooting percentage suggests Chiarot was probably owed a goal. The Jets for the most part did better with Chiarot on the bench than on ice, which says something when his most common partner was Byfuglien, and three of the next four were Paul Postma, Tyler Myers, and Trouba.

The HERO chart shows us Chiarot’s WOWY (with or without you) and that Chiarot’s linemates perform better without the defender. We have to keep his large amounts of ice time with someone like Byfuglien into account, and also remember that HERO charts are designed for three season samples. Ultimately Chiarot plays like a third-pairing defender, although the numbers may be ever-so-slightly inflated from his time with Big Buff.

Chiarot is what he is. When you look at his career trajectory, it is surprising that he made it as far as he has. He never dominated junior, even when he was older, and found himself sitting in the pressbox for most of his AHL rookie season.

Chiarot did improve a ton to get where he is today and that’s as a serviceable depth or #6/7 defender who can play decent enough on the third pair and kill some penalties at a low AAV. The Jets’ primary issue is that they have two on the roster playing regular minutes, and the other one, Mark Stuart, is substantially worse than even Chiarot and can’t even kill penalties (in terms of efficiency).

He’s worth keeping, but really the Jets top-four of Byfuglien, Trouba, Myers, and Tobias Enstrom need a buffer of 1-2 defenders in talent between them and players like Chiarot and Stuart. Hopefully Josh Morrissey and Paul Postma can succeed there.