Oilers vs Jets 05/24/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

The Winnipeg Jets have struggled when they play with no rest, but trends have not mattered in a series where Connor Hellebuyck has helped them push the Edmonton Oilers to the brink of elimination. The Jets and Oilers each opened at -111 in a pick’em with a 5.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Monday night at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Jets’ 5-4 overtime win on Sunday gave them a 3-0 series lead and ended their seven-game home playoff losing streak. The Jets are 3-7 in their last 10 games when they played the previous day, with the total going OVER six times at online sports betting sites. The Oilers are 7-3 in their last 10 games in the second of a back-to-back, with the total going UNDER eight times. The Jets are just 3-9 in their last 12 playoff games at home, with the total going UNDER in eight of those games. The Oilers are 4-6 in their last 10 playoff games on the road, with an even 5-5 OVER/UNDER split (how the OVER/UNDER works).

The Jets have outscored the Oilers 6-4 in the five-on-five phase, where Edmonton has the superior 59.7 expected goals-for percentage/xGF%, including a  56.4 scoring-chances share and 59.9 high-danger chances share. On the power play, the Oilers are one-for-seven in the series and are nine-for-34 against Winnipeg on the season. The Jets are two-for-five in the series and eight-for-29 against Edmonton overall. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)

Bettors looking for value with the Oilers will have to decide if there is any coming back from blowing a three-goal third-period lead in a virtual must-win game. Led by Connor McDavid, Edmonton had a series-best 65.1 xGF% on Sunday, improving on the already-solid 55.1 from their five regular-season games at the Bell MTS Centre. The Leon Draisaitl-McDavid-Jesse Puljujarvi line had a xGF% in the 70 percent range on Sunday and all three players are worth considering in anytime scorer props. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins also fired six shots on goal on Sunday to share the team lead.

The Oilers are 1-6 in playoff games under veteran coach Dave Tippett, with an average total of 6.43 goals in those matchups.

Mike Smith had a strong regular season, but the Oilers goalie has saved 0.49 goals less than expected so far in the series, according to MoneyPuck. Smith has 2.49 goals-against average and .914 save percentage in the series.

The Jets are closer to having their 1-2 punch at the top of the forward depth chart. The Mark Scheifele-Kyle Connor-Blake Wheeler first line had its first game of the playoffs with a positive xGF% above 50 percent. The Paul Stastny-Pierre-Luc Dubois-Nikolaj Ehlers line was under 30 percent in their first game back together, but Ehlers scored the first and last goals of the four-goal comeback. Dubois, in just his second game back from an injury, led the Jets in expected goals, while third-line forwards Andrew Copp and Mason Appleton were also dangerous enough to be a long-shot play in anytime scorer props.

As noted, the Jets have struggled in back-to-backs recently, but those matchups are usually on the road. Since 2015-16, they are 9-6 when playing at home for the second day in a row and have averaged 3.33 goals in those matchups.

Hellebuyck has saved 4.96 goals more than expected through three games, fashioning a 1.55 GAA and .958 save percentage