Jets vs Oilers 05/19/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

Between some unfavorable goalie splits, key injuries, and their difficulty containing Connor McDavid, it might be best to fade the Winnipeg Jets in their playoff opener. The Jets are the +155 underdog with the Edmonton Oilers coming back at -175 on the series prices for their matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. In terms of odds for Wednesday night, the Jets are +140 underdogs and the Oilers are -160 favorites with a 6.0-goal total.

The Jets are 2-4 in their last six away-underdog matchups against the Oilers, with three games finishing UNDER at online betting sites and one in a PUSH. They are 6-5 in their last 11 games as a road underdog in the playoffs, with the total going UNDER in five of the last six. The Oilers are 4-4 in their last eight games as a home favorite in the playoffs, with the last six such matchups finishing OVER on the totals (how the OVER/UNDER works).

The Jets were 2-7-0 against the Oilers during the regular season. Edmonton outscored Winnipeg 23-14 in the five-on-five phase, while the Jets were deficient in expected goals-for percentage, or xGF% (45.0), scoring-chances share (45.7) and high-danger chances share (42.1), per Natural Stat Trick. The Jets were six-for-24 on the power play and the Oilers were eight-for-27. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)

The Jets had a 30-23-3 regular season, but went 3-7 over their final 10 games with a 47.2 goals-for percentage (GF%) and 47.0 xGF%. Their projected Mark Scheifele-Kyle Connor-Blake Wheeler first line has struggled defensively against Edmonton with a combined minus-32 plus/minus rating. Nikolaj Ehlers (suspected shoulder injury), who had a team-most eight points in the season series against Edmonton, will be a game-time decision. Second-line forward Pierre-Luc Dubois was also held out of practice on Tuesday.

Winnipeg ranked 18th in the 31-team NHL in GF% (46.0) and 20th in xGF% (45.9) over the final 30 days of the regular season. The Jets were 27th in goals per game (2.17) and 18th in goals against (3.08). Their power play ranked 29th (6.7 percent) and their penalty killing ranked 24th (78.8).

Connor Hellebuyck had a 24-17-3 record with a 2.58 goals-against average and .916 save percentage in the regular season. He had a poor statline against Edmonton, going 2-5-0 with a 3.96 GAA and .877 save pct., each of which was his worst against any team.

The Oilers were 35-19-2 in the regular season, and finished with a 7-3 spurt, although they had a 41.4 GF% and a 51.2 xGF% in the five-on-five phase over that 10-game stretch. McDavid had 22 points in nine games this season against Winnipeg, and his line with Dominik Kahun and Jesse Puljujarvi should have a favorable matchup. Edmonton has practiced with a Leon Draisaitl-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Kailer Yamomoto second line, and will also have rugged right wing Zack Kassian back from an injury.

Edmonton was 15th in the NHL in GF% (50.0) and 14th in xGF% (51.3) over the final 30 days of the regular season. Over this span, the Oilers were sixth in goals per game (3.50) and seventh in goals against (2.43). Their power play was second (30.2) and their penalty killing ranked first (94.3).

Mike Smith was 21-6-2 with a 2.31 GAA and .923 save percentage during the regular season. The veteran Edmonton goalie thrived against Winnipeg, going 4-0-0 with a 2.06 GAA and .936 save percentage.