Canucks vs Jets 05/10/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

The head-to-head history is on the slumping Winnipeg Jets’ side entering the final week of the regular season. The Jets are -175 favorites and the Vancouver Canucks are +155 underdogs with a 5.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Monday night at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The teams play again on Tuesday.

The Jets are 11-3 in their last 14 home games against Vancouver, and the total went UNDER in 10 of those games (how the OVER/UNDER works). The total has gone OVER in five of the Jets’ last eight home games as a -150 to -180 favorite. The total has gone OVER 10 of the last 16 times that the Canucks were a +130 to +160 away underdog. 

The Jets are 3-4 in their last seven games when they were playing the next day, and 4-9 in their last 13 games when they played the previous day (although none of those contests were at the Bell MTS Centre). The Canucks are 6-3 in their last nine games on the front end of a back-to-back, but are 1-10 in their last 11 games on no rest with the OVER hitting at online sports betting sites eight times.

The Jets lead the season series 5-2 and have outscored the Canucks 13-9 in the five-on-five phase. Winnipeg has been on the short end in expected goals-for percentage, or xGF% (47.4), which owes to a deficiency in high-danger chances share (44.5), according to Natural Stat Trick. On the power play, the Canucks are three-for-16 and the Jets are four-for-14. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)

The Canucks, who are 20-26-3, have scraped out a 4-8-0 record since resuming play after a teamwide COVID-19 outbreak, but have only had the edge in xGF% once in that span. The Bo Horvat-Tanner Pearson-Matthew Highmore line struggled during a 4-3 defeat against the Edmonton Oilers last Saturday. Vancouver’s best trio last time out was a new Tyler Graovac-Marc Michaelis-Jayce Hawryluk line. Graovac and J.T. Miller were Vancouver’s most dangerous attackers, and Michaelis could also be a sleeper in anytime scorer props. Away games on one day of rest have exposed Vancouver’s defensive coverage, as they have allowed an average of 3.56 goals while going 6-10-0.

Since April 10, Vancouver ranks 22nd in goals-for percentage (45.3) and 31st, or last, in xGF% (39.2). The Canucks are 20th in goals per game (2.67) and 27th in goals against (3.58). Their power play ranks 26th (9.7 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 28th (73.5).

Thatcher Demko, who has a 13-17-1 record with a 2.96 goals-against average and .911 save percentage, has started Vancouver’s last three games. Demko has also allowed at least three goals in five consecutive starts. Braden Holtby, who is 7-9-2 with a 3.34 GAA and .899 save percentage, has lost his last three starts.

The Jets, who are 28-22-3, have had an xGF% under 50 percent eight times during their current 1-8-0 slump. If there are positives to take out of a 4-2 defeat to the Ottawa Senators last Saturday, it is that the Pierre-Luc Dubois-Mathieu Perreault-Paul Stastny and Adam Lowry-Andrew Copp-Mason Appleton lines generated a decent amount of offense. Copp had a team-most eight shots on goal in that game without scoring. The Jets are just 6-8-2 this season in home games with one day of rest, and have averaged 2.38 goals in those matchups.

Winnipeg is 19th in goals-for percentage (46.4) and 20th in xGF% (46.2) over the past 30 days. The Jets are 27th in goals per game (2.38) and 22nd in goals against (3.08). Their power play ranks 11th (20.0) and their penalty killing ranks 18th (78.6).

Connor Hellebuyck (22-17-3, 2.66 GAA, .914 save pct.) has allowed three or more goals in six of his last eight games. Backup goalie Laurent Brossoit (6-5-0, 2.36 GAA, 9.20), a Vancouver Island native, is 4-0-0 with an 0.86 GAA and .971 save percentage in five career games against Vancouver.