Nation Network Prospect Profiles: #37 Thomas Chabot

Today we turn our heads back to the QMJHL, where we look at the first of two high-scoring defenders from the Saint John Sea Dogs, Thomas Chabot.  It might be a bit of a surprise to see Chabot fall to the second round in our rankings, given that he has been cited as a mid-20s pick by most scouting agencies.  

Let’s continue past the jump to see his breakdown.

Bio:

  • Age:  17.627 (as of
    September 15th, 2014).  Born
    January 30, 1997.
  • Birthplace: Ste-Marie-de-Beauce, QC, CAN
  • Position: Defence
  • Frame: 6’2” – 180 lbs
  • Draft Year Team: Saint John Sea Dogs
  • Accomplishments: CHL Top Prospects Game, U18 WJC Bronze
    Medal

Stats:

GP G A1 A2 Pts Pts/Game
66 12 17 12 41 0.62
TmG% Tm Pts% SoG/Game Sh% DS% FO%
5.38% 18.39% 1.92 9.00% 30.00% 0.00%
ES G ES A1 ES A2 ES Pts ES Pts/Game AA Pts/GP
8 12 7 27 0.41 0.58
  • TmG% = Percentage of team goals a
    player scored in that player’s games played
  • TmPts% = Percentage of team goals
    a player registered points on in that player’s games played
  • AA Pts/GP = Age adjusted points
    per game
  • DS% = Percentage of player’s shots
    that were taken from high danger areas
PCS% 2014 PCS Pts/82 2014 PCS% 2015 PCS Pts/82 2015
12.5% 18.9 17.6% 22.0
PCS Most NHL GP PCS Highest Pts/GP
Scott Stevens Al Iafrate
Luke Richardson Scott Stevens
Sylvain Cote James Wisniewski

Scouts:

NHL CSS ISS FutureConsiderations HockeyProspect Pronman McKeen’s McKenzie Button
16 (NA) 16 21 20 45 21 25 25

From
EliteProspects’s Curtis Joe
:

A quick-thinking two-way defenseman that is able to make
fast decisions and help his team whenever he is on the ice. Possesses excellent
mobility and has good individual puck skills; can catch the opposition off
guard with his speed. All-in-all, a player who strives to be better with every
shift, staying a student of the game. Has the potential to flourish into a very
reliable all-around defenseman that can eat up minutes

From Future
Considerations
:

A strong passer who delivers pucks with good timing and
accuracy…has the ability to read the play and pick-and-choose his spots…has a
powerful stride that generates power but could improve the overall quickness in
his feet…willing to join the offensive attack…handles the puck well…not a big
point shot but gets it on net consistently…reads the play well in his own zone
and defensively he has the size and reach to close off lanes…good transition
defender that moves the puck up ice.

From Last
Word on Sports
:

Defensively, Thomas Chabot has good positioning and is willing to play a
physical game in front of the net and in the corners.  The positioning and
ability to read and react to plays have been a huge part of Chabot’s
turnaround.  He is also able to avoid the forecheck and skate the puck out
of danger in his own end of the rink.  One on one he can be tough to beat,
and while he doesn’t always look for the huge hit, and will not let such hits
get him out of his positioning.  He maintains good gap control and when
that big hit is available, he will take advantage of it.  Chabot is
willing to use his stick to break up passes, and to use his body to block
shots.

Our Take:

As an NHL average sized defencemen out of the QMJHL scoring well over a half point a game, Chabot immediately has the attention of most scouts.  He is seemingly loved by nearly all scouting agencies which suggest he will be a late first round pick.  The comments that are written about him suggest he has all the tools to succeed, but none of the tools are much better than above average and he is not considered in the top 10 of any skill amongst prospects.

The sole scouting voice that disagrees with these rest is Corey Pronman who suggests that Chabot is much better suited to being a mid-second round selection.  He agrees that Chabot’s skating is a strength, as is his hockey IQ and his physical play, but he needs work defensively.  While “bad defensively” is such a hard thing to spot in qualitative analysis, most of the other scouts disagree with him.

While we have different reasons, our statistical analysis aligns more closely with Pronman’s thoughts in that Thomas Chabot is a good prospect with a good chance of success, but is not quite worth a first round pick given all of the other players available.

Chabot played for the Saint John’s Sea Dogs this season – a below average possession team who was excellent at offence production but unlucky in their ability to convert their shots.  Chabot was not even the best draft eligible defencemen on his team – those honours would go to Jakob Zuboril.

His PCS numbers do suggest he has a higher than average chance of succeeding but his ceiling and his chances of success leave much to be desired about.  A fun fact about Chabot is that one of of his PCS comparable this season was Dan Hamhuis.

If you’re team wants to select Chabot in the first round, your scouts need to be absolutely sure that he is part of the 20% that will succeed.