Nation Network Prospect Profiles: #43 Yakov Trenin

Yakov Trenin was a player I’ve noticed early on this season
as he was a big Russian kid playing for my local Gatineau Olympiques.  He’s had an excellent season emerging as one
of the best players on one of the better possession teams in the league.  Despite the love that he has received from
his underlying numbers, the scouts don’t quite see the same about him.

Continue past the jump as we move along with our prospect
series to see how Yakov Trenin stacks up and what he needs to do in order to
make that next jump.

Bio:

  • Age: 17.67 years old at start of season. Born January 13, 1997
  • Birthplace: Chelyabinsk, Russia
  • Position: Left Wing
  • Frame: 6’2”, 192 lbs
  • Draft Year Team: Gatineau Olympiques (QMJHL)
  • Accomplishments: CHL Top Prospect Game, drafted
    round 1 in KHL Draft (16th overall), 1st in CHL Import
    Draft (32nd overall)

Stats:

GP G A1 A2 Pts Pts/Game
58 18 18 31 67 1.16
TmG% Tm Pts% SoG/Game Sh% DS% FO%
8.87% 33.00% 3.41 9.00% 62.00% 45.00%
ES G ES A1 ES A2 ES Pts ES Pts/Game AA Pts/GP
12 15 18 45 0.76 1.00
  • TmG% = Percentage of team goals a player scored in that player’s games played
  • TmPts% = Percentage of team goals a player registered points on in that player’s games played
  • AA Pts/GP = Age adjusted points per game
  • DS% = Percentage of player’s shots that were taken from high danger areas
PCS% 2014 PCS Pts/82 2014 PCS% 2015 PCS Pts/82 2015
0% 0 26.3% 41.0
PCS Most NHL GP PCS Highest Pts/GP
Ron Francis Ron Francis
Luc Robitaille Luc Robitaille
Ryan Smyth Derek King

More recently, Trenin’s most successful comparables include Todd Bertuzzi, Jeff Carter, and Simon Gagne.

PCS = Our Player Cohort
Success model. Click
here for more information about PCS
.

Scouts:

Draft Ranks:

NHL CSS ISS FutureConsiderations HockeyProspect Pronman McKeen’s McKenzie Button
48 59 48 68 78 NR 68 73

From
ESPN’s Corey Pronman
:

…a North American
type of prospect, with a very developed frame for a player his age… tough on the puck, maintaining possession well in battles, and shows ability in
the defensive zone and on the PK… more of a pass-first type of player… skating remains rough.

Corey Pronman did not consider him to be ranked top-10 prospect within any skill category.

From Future
Considerations
:

“His puck skills are pretty good, can deke around defenders and uses solid puck
protection due to his size and good speed once in the zone. He can make
accurate, creative passes. His creativity with the puck is refreshing to watch.
He has incredible vision down low or behind the net. Yakov possess a very hard
shot with a pretty good release. He needs to shoot a bit more when in good
position instead of looking to do a pass. He finishes his checks, goes in front
of the net for deflection, initiates contact in the corners, works for loose
pucks.”

From
TSN’s Craig Button
:

Trenin was playing the wing earlier in the season and he
seemed uncertain about his responsibilities at that position. Moving to centre
better exemplifies his abilities. He has good awareness and wants to get the
puck to his wingers and allow them to get scoring chances. He’s very poised
with the puck. Becoming quicker and faster and improving his shot will make him
that much more dangerous.

Our Take:

Yakov Trenin is a player that I like very much.  Having a 6’2” forward who is scoring over a
point a game is a very good sign as well as having had some success at centre.  All of the statistics suggest that he is a
very good bet.  He was one of the best
players on one of the best possession teams in the QMJHL.  His normal and his even strength numbers are
very strong, though he has a high number of secondary assists (something CHL
scouts care highly about) which reflects strong teammates he is playing with.

PCS struggles with his 16 year-old season as he played in
the MHL, given the few NHLers that have developed from there.  He has a very long distance comparable in
Nikita Kucherov, but that’s starting to grasp at straws.  In the CHL his production drew many strong
comparisons to players with long and successful NHL careers.

Trenin managed to produce offensively at a rate that puts
him as one of the best in the league and second best on his team next to an
over-ager.  His personal shooting
percentage was 1% below average which is reflective of the team’s shooting
percentage – below average as well.

I would argue that many of the scouts have Trenin ranked lower
than he should be.  The common summary
from the qualitative analysis is that he has all of the tools needed to succeed
except his skating and shot need to be improved.  Skating can be worked on and improved as can
his shot.  He may have a lower shot-rate
production, top 90 in the QMJHL this season, but Trenin managed to generate 62% of
his shots from the home-plate danger area of the ice.

Much like every other teenage boy, Trenin has room to fill
out in terms of physical size and strength, but currently it is not an
issue.  He had some top-10 results at the
NHL Combine having finished tied for first in his aerobic fitness and has one
of the largest wingspans – both physical and fitness assets that will help your
game.

If your team selects Trenin in the second round, he is not a
bad bet.  Given the perceived “Russian
Factor” I can see him falling to the third or fourth round where he should be
considered a steal.  He has a ceiling of
a second line centre, but it is more probable to see Trenin develop into a big middle-six utility forward with good defense and playmaking ability, if he becomes an NHLer. 

  • JackB

    When you say that 62% of Trenin’s shots were in the Home Plate area, are you referencing the “Dangerous Shots” statistic on the QMJHL’s website? I can’t find a definition on their website, so I was wondering if you’d seen an official description. From a glance, it seems as though Dangerous Shot% has at least a slight correlation with Shooting%, but, without an official definition I’m still not sure it’s a reliable statistic.