The Winnipeg Jets 2015 draft selections have been set with the Washington Capitals losing to the New York Rangers in the conference semi-finals.
The Jets shall select 17th, 25th, and 47th in what is being touted as a decently deep draft in potential NHL talent.
While the current draft stock may be deeper than the average year, it is important to keep some perspective in what these selections are likely to become.
We’ll look at the outcomes for picks of the same selection over a ten year period.
Total Games Played: 2953
Total Points Produced: 1305
Points Per Game: 0.44
Proportion with >200 Games: 0.6
Despite popular belief, a first round selection historically is not exactly a guaranteed homerun.
There is quite the mix of bag players. Zach Parise turned into a bonafide top-end player, while Carlo Colaiacovo, Boyd Gordon, Martin Hanzal, Trevor Lewis, and Jake Gardner developed into differing levels of supporting role players.
There is a lot of depth in the 2015 draft, but the Jets should not be expecting a bluechip prospect falling into their laps at 17th overall.
Total Games Played: 3081
Total Points Produced: 1182
Points Per Game: 0.46 (excluding Ward’s games played)
Proportion with >200 Games: 0.5
There is not much of a drop in outcomes moving to the 25th overall pick.
Brad Boyes has had the largest positive impact career, although Cam Ward played a major role in winning a Stanley Cup with his hot-streak year.
Again, most of the players drafted who succeeded in playing at the NHL level ended up as supporting cast players. Andrew Cogliano and Patrik Berglund have been great middle six depth players, and there is a lot of evidence that Rob Schremp was far better than many players filling team’s bottom line positions. Anthony Stewart was another player who was able to contribute to his teams.
Total Games Played: 1710
Total Points Produced: 1182
Points Per Game: 0.37
Proportion with >200 Games: 0.3
Now we move to the point where you are more likely to obtain nothing than a NHL player.
There is still the possibility of value, especially for teams that draft for overall skill first and foremost.
Matt Carle has developed into an above average NHL defenseman, while Blake Comeau and Shawn Matthias have carved out careers as role players. After that there has not been much, other than Dana Tyrell.
Keep expectations realistic, hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
It’s a pretty generic statement but is solid advice to keep in mind when dealing with prospects. The average NHL team only develops around two bonafide NHL players per a draft.
It’s important to keep expectations in check; however, it is also plausible to improve your chances relative to others by exploiting market inefficiencies. One inefficiency we have previously discussed is the illusion that larger players are always the safer picks.
The 2015 draft has been called a deep one for NHL talent, and the projection models agree that there is some highly interesting players available. Still, it is always good to look back at history and understand what may happen.