Jets Prospects Development: Using cumulative NHLEs

NHLEs are often used to estimate how a prospect would produce if they were in the NHL the next season. They are also sometimes used in trying to produce better draft lists.

Another interesting way to use them is in evaluating the development of prospects.

One caveat must always be emphasized for some individuals:

Point scoring is not a total value stat. The statistical hockey blogosphere is well aware that players can contribute to winning beyond scoring (example: Corsi drivers). However, there is a relationship with prospects who score and those that succeed in making the NHL and how well they perform when they get there. The talent distribution in leagues below the NHL are much larger, because of this even defensive defenders like Dan Hamhuis and Marc-Edouard Vlasic posted respectable point productions.

Forwards

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Quick Thoughts

From these charts, we can see how special players like Nic Petan and Nikolaj Ehlers really are.

It’s no surprise that Alexander Burmistrov’s expected NHL production has been placed between that of Mark Scheifele and Adam Lowry.

Joel Armia’s initial numbers are hindered by the SHL tending to push down non-blue-chip prospects. Armia’s AHL numbers are actually quite superb, and I expect that his chart will move up with more sample.

Brendan Lemieux, Chase De Leo, and C.J. Franklin were good depth prospect adds for the Jets this summer (well, this month for Lemieux).

Jimmy Lodge is a prospect that Kevin Cheveldayoff should sign this summer. To lose him to redraft would be unfortunate as the Jets could use more forward prospects with potential in the AHL.

There are pros and cons to using cumulative numbers. The process reduces the impact of shooting percentage fluctuations, but also diminishes the true value of late bloomers like Andrew Copp.

Defenders

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Jacob Trouba is really something special. I always find it funny to note the difference between Trouba’s and Morrissey’s draft season, since Trouba was sold as more defensive and Morrissey as more offensive.

Josh Morrissey struggled early on this season but has since been picking up the pace. I do wonder though how much of his explosive season last year was increased by shooting percentage (a lot of power play goals).

Jan Kostalek, like Jimmy Lodge, is definitely a prospect Cheveldayoff should sign this summer. Kostalek is known more for his defensive acumen, but still is provide decent enough offense to make him likely a real prospect.

Brenden Kichton hasn’t progressed much offensively, although management has spoken highly of his defensive developments.

The rest of the Jets players do not have much to speak for as of yet.