On the Tangradi Return

After clearing waivers, Eric Tangradi was
dealt to the Habs for a sinking prospect and a backup goalie with a salary
$350K richer and a career save percentage 7 points lower than the last guy.
Perhaps most strange is that Tangradi was among the Jets very best neutral
zone players. His zone entries hovered around 7th among forwards despite
limited ice time and poor linemates, and his possession numbers put him in the
top-5 among Jets’ forwards last year (and 8th the year before). His limitations
are obvious, but he put the puck in the right end of the ice more often than
not as a fourth liner and that has value.

So the question is, why the trade? What does
it tell us about Paul Maurice’s intentions for this season, his coaching
preferences, and the direction of the team?

The Right Deal?

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The Jets waived Peter Budaj today, indicating
he’s at best #3 on the depth chart. With the team desperately in need of a
marquee goaltender, we can hope that he’s a useful support for Connor
Hellebuyck but doesn’t impede his opportunity at the net – especially with Eric
Comrie turning pro next season. The team needs answers and development,
not more questions and waiting.

We can imagine Budaj is the first call-up in
case of injury, though, which is what he should be if you believe Eyes on the Prize. Budaj’s career .903 save
percentage puts him at the level of an NHL call-up goaltender according to
their research – a good AHL goalie, a bad NHL one. That career number
includes two seasons as the de facto starter on a bad Avalanche team, both
sub-.900 seasons, so it may not be fair. His more recent work – a .910 as a
backup in 3 years in Montreal – puts him in average NHL back-up territory and
ties him with Al Montoya’s career number. 

Patrick Holland is a reasonable depth
addition considering Tangradi was being flushed by the Jets. A
1992 birthday who exploded in his draft +2 season,
Holland finished 6th in WHL scoring with 109 points in 2012/13. His
turn to pro has come with injury troubles and a drop in his offence. Once known
for his hockey IQ, two-way ability, and exceptional passing, Holland fell down
a poor Hamilton Bulldogs roster and lost his PP time in his second pro season. He
might be a Mitch Holmberg-type for those of you watching the Oilers this
pre-season. He won’t replace the offence or veteran presence of IceCaps
standouts like Jerome Samson or Andrew Gordon from last year, but he adds to
the team’s forward depth and we can hope he provides some
shelter for the many new professionals debuting with the club. He’s a ‘tweener’
and so is unlikely to ever make the NHL. But he’s still only 22 and has
2nd line AHL potential.  

It’s fair to question the additions made, and
Tangradi might have been the best player in the deal. But ultimately, the Jets
acquired Tangradi for a 7th and eventually moved him for a player at a more
shallow position. It’s a hockey deal with unwanted assets from both sides.

The System

We know that Maurice intends to be fast,
and Eric Tangradi is not fast. When Paul Maurice took the job, he noted that he
was excited about having a young, fast, big team. TJ Galiardi and Matt
Halischuk remain with the team despite having their own visible limitations.
Matthieu Perreault is not necessarily a faster skater than Jokinen, but we can
be sure he moves in more straight lines. Kane and Wheeler are together after
years of attacking with speed from an outside lane solo. Maurice has
preached simple outs, speed through the neutral zone, and straight lines in
attacking to the net. Tangradi is more of a rumbling player who eventually
finds a corner for 30 seconds of filler effort. 

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If we leave it at that – Maurice wants
something this player doesn’t have – it’s a sound move. The ‘fitness =
playoffs’ drum has been sounded often this pre-season, and it’s reasonable to
assume that Tangradi’s skating fitness wasn’t ideal for Maurice’s system
either. He’s never been known for his range or stamina.

At the same time, players like Galiardi and
Halischuk are known for their extremely poor possession results. Adam Lowry –
another candidate to take a bottom-six role this season – is a rookie with just
73 professional games of experience and isn’t likely to (or expected to) push
the flow of play for some time. 

A move as small as shipping Tangradi out of
town signals that the organization is even less interested in possession and control
of play than they were this time last year, but are equally or more concerned
about scoring chances as a metric of effective play. (That may excite or
disappoint – it’s a matter of perspective and preference)

The Consequence

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Eric Tangradi was having limited impact on the
Jets. Playing under 10 minutes night, he managed just 6 points last season.
Even if we all agreed his replacement was a downgrade, the consequence would be
a matter of a few goals at most over a whole season.

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Instead, what is of interest to me is the
value this management and coaching group have placed on skating and on scoring
chances. Paul Maurice is hardly the first coach to ever consider trying hard,
being fit, and getting chances to score as a recipe for success. But at the same moment the Jets are replacing
a possession player with a speed player, John Tortorella is living on buy out
money and the Maple Leafs are handing control of the systems to the assistants
Randy Carlyle didn’t get to pick after both coaches chose speed and scoring chances over possession. Teams are hiring analytics gurus – a crowd that
has lauded Tangradi as a 4th liner and lobbied against bloated
contracts for replacement level players like Budaj – while the Jets are
convinced that simplicity, gumption, and skating will be the difference. 

The team had a predictable pattern last year, including notable offensive brown-outs against teams
that play above the puck in defensive transition.
Against the Wild, Kings, Blues and Lightning, the team went 4-9-3 with an average of 2 goals per game (just 1.3 goals per game in the 12 losses).
Despite all the rhetoric about change and the hope for a new coach, is it possible a move as simple as Eric Tangradi for Peter Budaj signals the continuation of those same structural problems? Those teams with aggressive forechecks, vertical
speed styles, or who play to the man in defensive transition got burned a
little more often. We saw the team go 8-2-1 against the Ducks, Coyotes, Leafs,
and Oilers last season. In that way, the team moved in fits and starts to an 11th place Western conference finish. Consistency was said to be a problem, but in truth, the team was extremely consistent in everything but who they played. 

The challenge for the Jets is identifying players who help in every game against every opponent. Moving Tangradi to give a roster spot to Halischuk is just picking which teams to be effective against. 

  • X

    For what it is worth Maurice went out of his way to say that Tangradi showed up to camp with excellent conditioning.

    I’ll cop to being a big Tangradi fan, you keep guys like him around because they will always be near league minimum, always clear waivers, and never be a liability on the roster if you need to move them around the depth chart for injuries.

    I will take it as a given that he is superior at playing the sport of hockey to Thorburn and Peluso. I understand that some may believe that the extra finishing that you get with a player like Halischuk makes up for the dumpster-fire his play is when trying to get out of the zone or stay in the opposing end, those people are wrong though. He is not as good as TJ or O’Dell certainly, but neither of them are likely to clear waivers and the return on this trade being a player that is waiver-exempt is, in my opinion, not a coincidence.

    The Jets lost a player better than some of their active roster and that acts as a useful roster management tool, a net financial loss of around 700K, and a goaltender that is likely worse than Danny Taylor whom they could have had on a two-way for league minimum and less that 100K in the minors. This is not a disaster but it is kind of stupid and pointless.

  • X

    Also, Galiardi is not a particularly poor possession player. His CorsiRel numbers are not great as a Shark but the Sharks are the Sharks. He was one of the best possession players for the Flames.

    At worst he is a middling possession guy I think, probably a bit of a driver of play. Certainly not a Halischuk black-hole type.

  • ChinookArchYYC

    “the organization is even less interested in possession and control of play than they were this time last year, but are equally or more concerned about scoring chances as a metric of effective play.”

    If the Jets improve their scoring chances (as a metric) won’t their team CORSI also improve?

    • X

      Their Corsi will likely improve if they improve their net scoring chances, not only their chances generated for themselves. Furthermore if they play a speed game with a lot of transition but no ability to keep the zone or exit their own zone they will surrender a lot of sustained pressure time. That will be hard on their Corsi, possibly without skewing the scoring chance numbers that much.

      Also, with Pavelec in net the Jets are a lot better off playing low-event hockey, their goaltending is bad.

  • ChinookArchYYC

    I guess I expect that improving the Jets scoring chances means more of their own and limiting the opposition chances. I completely agree that low event hockey is probably a better strategy for the Jets. It’s boring, but effective.

    • Kevin McCartney

      It’s an interesting question, ChinookArch. There is reasonable debate about this, but in my opinion, the Leafs last year were a team that do well by scoring chance metrics but extremely poorly by possession metrics by design. The reason was simple and structural – they used a breakout call the ‘over top’ break out (I wrote about it here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1843192-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-of-the-toronto-maple-leafs-system)

      It created lots of odd-man rushes in their favour and caught defenders flat footed. But it was one or two high-% attacks at the net and then they were back to defending. So other teams carried the flow of play, but the Leafs still managed to score well. Possession purists claim that it’s ‘unsustainable.’ In my view, it just looks worse when it doesn’t work. It fails against some systems (such as the Chicago NZ overload) but does okay against others (like the Oiler half-board pinch they’re going to use this year).

      Anyway, the point is that the Jets could choose be that sort of team and do poorly by possession. They likely won’t tilt things that far and we’ll see them do okay at corsi because of players like Ladd and Little and okay at scoring chances because of Kane and Wheeler. But they will talk about the scoring chances and keep trying to find players who show up well in that area. That’s not good or bad, really – it’s just contrary to the way the rest of the league is headed at the moment and leads to some different priorities in evaluating the effectiveness of certain player types.