The Winnipeg Jets will look to bounce back from a 3-2 loss in the series opener when they host the Dallas Stars for Game 2 Friday evening.

Mikko Rantanen’s heroics continued in the series opener, as the Finnish superstar carried his side to victory with a natural hat trick in the second period. The Jets made a solid push in the third period but were unable to get a game-tying goal past Jake Oettinger. Oddsmakers consider the Jets more likely to win Game 2 than they did in Game 1, as Winnipeg is currently a -135 favourite in Friday’s matchup after closing as a slight underdog in the series opener.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Stars emerged victorious from a closely contested series opener thanks to another superhuman performance from Rantanen and a sharp showing from Oettinger in goal. The statistics suggest it was a pretty closely contested game, as the Jets generated 2.77 expected goals compared to the Stars’ total of 2.75, while the Jets also owned a 14-10 edge in high-danger scoring chances.

It was a relatively sharp showing from the Stars defensively, which has rarely been the case in the time since Miro Heiskanen has been out of the lineup with a significant knee injury. If the Jets remain unable to expose the weaker pieces of the Stars’ defensive core, they can not expect to find good results versus Dallas, as the team’s offensive upside is tremendous, while Oettinger has been quite sharp in goal.

The Stars’ top-three forward units is arguably the best in the league, at least based on overall depth. They have generated 3.33 xGF/60 this postseason, which is quite good considering their opponents and they’ve scored 3.00 goals per game where it counts.

Defensively, the Stars have been relatively mediocre at best this postseason, as they have allowed 3.67 xGA/60, which is not overly surprising considering how they finished the regular season. It has been confirmed that Heiskanen will remain sidelined in Friday’s matchup, which is quite significant given the way the defence core has struggled overall during his absence.

Oettinger holds a +3.9 GSAx rating and .914 save percentage in eight appearances this postseason and has done well to help mask the Stars’ defensive flaws.

After leaving it all on the ice in a double-overtime thriller versus the St. Louis Blues on Sunday, the Jets did look to lack the same level of urgency throughout most of Game 1. They hung in somewhat admirably, all things considered, but head coach Scott Arniel did seem right in questioning the overall level of intensity of the game.

One of the Jets’ main focuses entering Game 2 will likely be playing with a higher level of intensity and upping the aggressiveness of their forecheck. The Stars currently have a defensive core that can struggle to move the puck under pressure, and the Jets need to do a better job of exposing that weakness.

Scott Arniel said Josh Morrissey would “probably” play in tonight’s game at Friday’s morning press conference, which is likely one reason that the Jets are considered far more likely to win this matchup than Game 1 based on the current betting prices, and we will likely see the prices shift closer to where they were in Game 1 if Morrissey is ultimately unable to play.

Mark Scheifele made a strong return to the lineup in Game 1, as he scored a goal and poured seven shots on target. The Jets’ top line of Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Gabriel Vilardi fared extremely well in the game overall, finishing with a 97.5% expected goal share and outshooting the Stars 12-to-2.

Winnipeg will likely need its top line to continue offering a dominant level of play in this series to find success, as it could be difficult for the Jets to match the production that will likely come from the Stars’ bottom three units. The Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi unit was one of the best lines in the league during the regular season and has not missed a beat in a small sample of play since Vilardi returned to the lineup.

Hellebuyck offered a relatively average performance in Game 1, as allowing three goals against seemed to be a fairly reasonable outcome given the chances faced. He’d probably like to have controlled the rebound prior to Rantanen’s first goal more effectively, but his play was not the reason the Jets lost.

It seems likely that the Jets will bring a better performance into this matchup, which, to no surprise, was the general sentiment from the team following their disappointing loss in Game 1. If they can do a better job on the forecheck and exhibit a higher level of urgency overall, they should have a good chance of authoring a better offensive performance versus a Stars side that has not defended well for a long period of play.

My lean would be with the Jets in terms of a side, but at -135, it’s hard to say there is much value in buying into a potential bounce-back performance with Hellebuyck’s play still somewhat of a question mark.

There does look to be value in backing Connor to record over 3.5 shots on goal at a price of +120. The Jets’ top line was completely dominant in Game 1, and has been excellent this postseason when both Scheifele and Vilardi are in the lineup. Arniel should be able to continue deploying his top trio in favourable matchups on home ice, and the Jets power play could be more effective if Morrissey returns in this matchup.

Scheifele and Vilardi combined for 12 shots on goal in Game 1, but Connor is still the primary shooter on the line and could be the more likely candidate to pour shots on target if Winnipeg’s top trio remains comparably dominant.