After a spirited team win in Game 5, the Winnipeg Jets will return to the Enterprise Center in St. Louis with the opportunity to close out their best-of-seven series with the Blues on Friday.

The home team has won all five games in this series, and the Jets were outscored 12-3 in the previous two games in St. Louis. On top of that, the Jets will be without star forward Mark Scheifele in this matchup, and as a result they’re slight underdogs after closing as -135 favourites in the last matchup in St. Louis.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Jets showed plenty of character in their quality win on home ice in Game 5, as they responded to the loss of Scheifele and another shaky performance from Connor Hellebuyck with flying colours.

Throughout the series, I have defended Hellebuyck’s play to some extent, as despite his awful save percentage, on a goal-by-goal basis his play has not been as dreadful as the numbers suggest. Jimmy Snuggerud’s game-tying goal early in the second period of Game 5 was about as soft as it gets, though, and certainly could have been deflating to a lesser team.

However, Dylan DeMelo answered back just five minutes later after a fortuitous bounce out front, a goal that looked quite similar to Justin Faulk’s in Game 4. Vladislav Namestnikov scored late in the period to send the Jets into the third with a two-goal lead after Namestnikov was promoted to the top line due to Scheifele’s departure from the game due to injury.

The Jets held a 15-13 edge in high-danger scoring chances in Game 5, and outshot the Blues 34 to 27. They held a 3.72 to 2.82 edge in expected goal share.

Through five games, the Jets hold an expected goal share of 58.7%, which is the highest mark of any team in Round 1. They have allowed only 2.27 xGA/60, which is the best mark of any playoff team by a wide margin.

Expected goals data works mainly off shot location, and it would be hard to dispute that some of the Blues’ chances are being underquantified in the data, but it’s still clear that the Blues have done well to get the absolute most out of their chances and are losing the territorial battle overall.

Any team in the NHL would be at a significant loss without their number-one centre, and that is particularly true when it’s someone as dominant as Scheifele is. Scheifele has had a great series, producing six points while offering sound play in his own end, and the Jets’ depth at the critical centre-ice position does look questionable with him out of the lineup.

Namestnikov will be elevated to the top line alongside Kyle Connor and Gabriel Vilardi in this matchup. Namestnikov is a Swiss Army knife capable of being used in many different roles, but he is certainly a downgrade on Scheifele, and his elevation to the top line sends a ripple effect down the lineup card.

The Jets do appear to be getting a massive piece back as Nikolaj Ehlers looks ready to return, and he’ll skate on the second line alongside Adam Lowry and Cole Perfetti.

Dominic Toninato appears to be entering the lineup and will likely centre the fourth line alongside Brandon Tanev and Alex Iafallo.

The Blues have done a great job of making life tough on Hellebuyck when they do get chances in the offensive zone in this series, which has allowed them to continue finishing chances at a high rate, something they did extremely well in the final third of the season.

The offensive upside of the Blues looks strong on paper, and has been a strength in this series. Even without Dylan Holloway, their top six is still loaded with capable finishing threats and features one of the best playmakers in the game in Robert Thomas. Snuggerud has shown well on the second line in this series and has helped fill the void left by Holloway.

Expected goals data seems to be underselling the Blues’ overall process right now, and many of their offensive strengths create blind spots in the data. Even still, it has certainly been favourable how many seeing-eye point shots are finding their way in. Even with well-placed point shots and bodies out front, it’s unlikely those looks will continue to go in at the rate they have in this series.

The underlying metrics suggest the Blues have not fared overly well defensively in this series, and that seems a little bit less debatable. They have allowed 3.30 xGA/60 in the series and given up three goals per game where it counts. Goaltender Jordan Binnington has not been amazing with an .883 save percentage, but he has faced a fairly tough workload, and the Jets have done well to prevent him from becoming a massive story.

Could this be the game where Hellebuyck finally steals one? Chances are he will need to be better in order for the Jets to find a win, as it seems unlikely that the Blues will bow out quietly in this back-and-forth series, and the loss of Scheifele is very significant.

Defensively, the Jets have been sharper than their goals against totals suggest, and they could be due for a better combination of puck luck and play in goal from Hellebuyck. My lean would be with St. Louis in terms of a side in this game, but the Jets should be capable of grinding one out on the road considering their defensive upside and the potential that Hellebuyck offers a better showing.

With Scheifele out, the Jets will need some forwards to step up, and Cole Perfetti could be a good candidate to help fill in for the lost production, especially as he and Ehlers have played well together this season. Perfetti has had 23 shot attempts in the series and generated 1.18 individual expected goals over the last three games. He has had his looks offensively, and has the shooting talent to finish one off soon, and could be even more likely to get some good chances tonight with a dominant offensive play-driver in Ehlers back on his unit.

While it wouldn’t surprise me if this is a lower-scoring affair, at +310, I believe we are getting a good price to back Perfetti tallying his first goal of the series.