The Winnipeg Jets kept their season alive with a convincing shutout victory in Game 5, and will now be forced to exorcise their road demons in a do-or-die Game 6 Saturday evening at American Airlines Center. The Dallas Stars are equally large favourites in Game 6 as they were in Game 4, a game which the Jets arguably deserved a better result.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Connor Hellebuyck and the Jets are 0-5 on the road this postseason and will be forced to either buck that trend Saturday or head home early after a highly impressive campaign. At times in the Jets series versus the St. Louis Blues, it was evident that the team was not as sharp on the road and that Hellebuyck in particular was not as comfortable.

Neal Pionk was asked postgame after the Jets’ Game 5 win what the team needed to do differently to win on the road in Game 6, and stated that he believed the team played well enough to win in Game 4 and seemed to exude confidence in the statement. Pionk’s statement was entirely true based on a further review of Game 4, as the Jets were able to generate far more high-quality chances in that matchup, which suggests they are capable of skating with the Stars in their building.

The most critical factor in determining the winner of this game will certainly be whether or not Hellebuyck is able to offer a quality start. It feels like a cop-out to simply pin everything on goaltending, but the reality is, it’s extremely difficult to overcome soft goals against a strong team like the Stars.

Hellebuyck will certainly have gained some confidence from Thursday’s shutout win, but it does seem fair to conclude that he is facing a bit of a mental hurdle at this point in trying to perform on the road.

In Games 5 and 6 combined, the Jets have played to a 59.81% expected goal share and were certainly the better team overall. They allowed only 23.07 shots against per 60, and allowed only 2.64 xGA/60.

At times in the Jets series versus the Blues, they could have done a better job of clearing out the front of the net, to help prevent the type of chances that have given Hellebuyck fits over the last two postseasons. With that said, their defensive process has still been quite excellent overall this postseason, as they have allowed only 2.61 xGA/60, which is the best mark among all playoff teams.

The Jets power play broke through twice in Game 5, which was not entirely surprising given the quality of chances they were able to generate with the man advantage in Game 4. Winnipeg held the NHL’s highest power play success rate in the regular season and could be finding their stride with the man advantage at the right time.

The Jets have no skaters on the injury report entering this matchup, but news broke Saturday that Mark Scheifele’s father unexpectedly died on Friday night so his status is unclear for Game 6.

Based on their play at times during this regular season and in last playoffs, it seems hard to believe the Stars have needed to rely on elite goaltending and scoring against the run of play to find success this postseason, but that has been the case. Out of all of their seven victories this postseason, only their win in Game 5 over the Colorado Avalanche was overly convincing.

Across 12 games this postseason, the Stars hold a 46.43% expected goal share across all strengths and a 46.65% expected goal share in even-strength play. Away from the analytics, they have not looked to be overly dominant either but have received excellent play in goal from Jake Oettinger to help steal several close wins and gotten just enough production in the right moments.

It was reasonable to conclude that Miro Heiskanen’s return to the lineup would go a long ways to helping the Stars clean up their overall game, but to this point that has not been the case, as the Jets have certainly outplayed the Stars in Heiskanen’s first two games back in the lineup.

Based on a statement from head coach Pete DeBoer Saturday morning, the Stars will be going with 11 forwards and seven defenders in this matchup as they continue to attempt to ease Heiskanen back into the lineup while offering more ice time to their deep top nine up front.

While the Jets have struggled to get results on the road this postseason, their performance in Game 4 was arguably their best road game of the playoffs, and a similar performance in this matchup could yield a better result. The Jets have outplayed the Stars by a fairly significant margin over the last two games, and while Dallas could find a higher level in tonight’s matchup, it’s rare that we see a team that has carried this much of the overall run of play five games into a series priced as this big of an underdog.

It’s scary to back Hellebuyck on the road right now, but at a price of +125, I’m willing to do so given the chances that the Jets can play an excellent game defensively and make this into somewhat of a coin flip.