If the Winnipeg Jets fail to win on home ice Thursday evening, they will become the 12th consecutive Presidents’ Trophy-winning side that has failed to win the Stanley Cup.

Despite the losing result, the Jets offered a respectable performance in Game 4, and may not need to change all that much in order to find success on home ice in this do-or-die matchup. Oddsmakers agree with that sentiment, as Winnipeg is a -125 favourite in Thursday’s matchup after closing as a +135 underdog in the previous matchup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

On top of holding one of the deepest offensive cores in the league, the Stars also hold one of the very best goaltenders in the NHL in Jake Oettinger, which is why they look likely to be a very tough out this postseason.

The Jets generated several high-quality scoring chances early on in Game 4 but failed to convert on those looks before Mikael Granlund opened the scoring with a soft power play marker against Connor Hellebuyck. The Jets continued to pour it on all night long but converted just one of their 32 shots against Oettinger.

The Jets led 3.37 to 2.32 in expected goal share in Game 4, and the ‘eye test’ would certainly agree with the idea that they were the better team. Though the Stars have plenty of offensive talent capable of finishing chances at a high rate, if the teams had traded goaltenders in Game 4, the result of the game would have been different.

Despite continuing to play at a well below average level defensively this postseason, in part due to the absence of Miro Heiskanen, the Stars are poised to knock off a second straight Stanley Cup contender. The Stars have allowed 3.54 xGA/60 this postseason, which is by a wide margin the worst mark of any team still standing. They have allowed 31.44 SA/60, which is also the worst of any team that is yet to be eliminated.

Heiskanen was not at his best in his return to the lineup on Tuesday, as the dominant defender clearly showed some signs of rust. The Stars held an expected goal share of just 26.78% with Heiskanen on the ice in Game 4.

Oettinger holds a +5.8 GSAx and .917 save percentage this postseason, and on a per-game basis has been even sharper than those numbers suggest, as most of the damage was done in two blowout losses versus the Colorado Avalanche.

From an offensive perspective, it’s no surprise to see the Stars finding success, as they feature one of the most stacked forward corps in recent memory. Mikko Rantanen’s play has obviously been the big story, but they should not need to be as reliant on production from Rantanen as we have seen thus far to find success.

Easier said than done, but if the Jets can finish more of their high-danger scoring chances while receiving a solid performance in goal from Hellebuyck, they will likely find a better result in this matchup.

The Jets need to find a way to convert their chances is on the power play. Winnipeg has succeeded on just one of its 16 opportunities with the man advantage in this series, which has ruined what appears to be an otherwise sound process. From a statistical perspective, it is generating scoring chances on the power play at a comparable rate as the regular season but has been stymied by Oettinger.

Hellebuyck’s performance in Game 4 might not have seemed as awful if not for the fact that he was heavily outplayed at the other end of the ice by Oettinger. Granlund’s first goal absolutely had to be saved, but Granlund’s other two tallies were fairly standard and would have been goals the majority of the time.

Based on today’s morning skate, head coach Scott Arniel is reuniting Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, and Gabriel Vilardi on the top line, which seems to be a logical move. The trio was one of the league’s very best lines in the regular season, and has been effective when together this postseason.

The Jets deserved better in Game 4, and have owned more of the overall play in this series despite being down 3-1. They have been significantly more effective this postseason on home ice, and Hellebuyck, in particular, has been much sharper at home.

While I do believe the Jets are unlucky to be down 3-1 in this series, the flaws that have led to their disappointing results may not change. Chances are the Jets will carry more of the overall play in this matchup, but the goaltending disparity has been concerning, and the Stars’ highly talented offensive lineup should do a good job of finishing quality chances at a high rate.

It does seem likely Winnipeg will continue to pour plenty of shots towards Oettinger, and this appears to be a good spot to back Jets shooters going over their shot prop totals. The Jets’ top line will likely generate a ton of chances in this matchup and should receive lofty usage in this do-or-die spot.

At +120, I see value in backing Connor to record over 3.5 shots on goal for a third consecutive game, and would play it down to +110.