The Winnipeg Jets moved to 0-4 on the road this postseason with their 5-2 loss in Game 3 versus the Dallas Stars and will be desperate to buck that trend Tuesday when they look to avoid a 3-1 series deficit.

Winning Game 4 could be even more difficult for the Jets, as top defender Miro Heiskanen will finally return from injury to suit up for the Stars in this matchup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Across the rest of the NHL, home-ice advantage has meant less than ever in recent postseasons, but you would never know it looking at the night and day results of Connor Hellebuyck and the Jets playing on the road compared to home ice.

The Jets got off to a tough start in Game 3, as they took two penalties in the opening minutes of the game and were forced into a 5-on-3 situation. Immediately after Nino Niederreiter’s penalty expired to make it a 5-on-4 power play, Roope Hintz scored on a soft redirection, a chance that Jets fans would probably like to see Hellebuyck save.

The Jets stabilized with a solid push in the middle part of the period and were able to knot the game at one before Thomas Harley snapped home his third of the postseason. Winnipeg showed strong resolve to tie the game at two early in the second period, but the Stars pushed heavily from that point on and blew the game open in the third after a controversial goal from Alex Petrovic.

From a statistical perspective, it was Winnipeg’s worst defensive game of the postseason, as it allowed 18 high-danger scoring chances and 4.54 expected goals against. Hellebuyck made some quality saves to keep the game tied at two, but it was certainly another disappointing performance overall, and he finished with a -0.46 GSAx rating.

Hellebuyck now holds a -9.6 GSAx rating and .848 save percentage this postseason, which are the worst marks of any goaltender during these playoffs.

The Jets’ top two offensive trios were both outplayed in Game 3, which has not typically been the case this postseason. The second line of Nikolaj Ehlers, Vladislav Namestnikov, and Cole Perfetti was exposed on the defensive side of the puck, playing in some tough matchups versus arguably the deepest offensive lineup in the league.

The Jets also failed to break through on the power play, which is one realistic area in which they need to improve in tonight’s matchup. Winnipeg finished the regular season with the best power play success rate in the NHL, and with Gabriel Vilardi, Josh Morrissey, and Ehlers all back in the lineup, they are skating out the same five-man unit that found so much success in the regular season.

Logan Stanley is still listed as day-to-day, and his status for this matchup is unclear. Haydn Fleury had hung in respectably prior to Game 3, but had his worst outing of the postseason, and will likely come out of the lineup if Stanley is available.

While another three-point performance from Mikko Rantanen remained the biggest story for the Stars in Game 3, it was a more convincing showing from the rest of their deep offensive core.

The Stars’ second line of Mason Marchment, Matt Duchene, and Tyler Seguin generated 1.23 expected goals but failed to break through where it counts. The trio was one of the best second lines in the league in the regular season prior to Seguin’s lengthy absence, with a 58.3% expected goal share across 202.4 minutes of play and a goal differential of 15 to 6.

Among skaters to play over 100 minutes at even strength this season, Seguin ranked first in the NHL, generating 3.36 points per 60.

If Heiskanen is able to offer close to his usual level of play in his return to the lineup, the Jets have put themselves into a very tough spot in needing to dig their way out of a 2-1 hole after the games in this series in which Heiskanen was absent. The Stars’ defensive play has been drastically below average for a lengthy span, but Heiskanen’s ability to play close to 30 minutes at a high level will likely go a long way to helping alleviate that concern.

Jake Oettinger holds a +3.8 GSAx rating and .911 save percentage in 10 starts this postseason.

With Oettinger playing at a high level, the Stars’ only real concern this postseason has been their defensive play, and the return from Heiskanen could help them significantly in that regard. It’s hard for me to accept that Hellebuyck and the Jets can not find a way to play at a higher level on the road, but it does seem hard to argue betting on the Jets in this matchup with the prices set the same as they were in Game 3 at the time of writing.

One angle that does look appealing to me is betting on the Stars’ second offensive trio to break through with some production in this matchup. They were one of the very best lines in the league during the regular season and have created chances at a comparable rate in this series as they did in the regular season.

Seguin has been involved in plenty of those chances and should benefit from favorable matchups once again in this game. At +110, I see value in backing him to record a point in this matchup, as he takes on a Jets side that has had a tough time suppressing goals on the road this postseason.