After an impressive shutout victory in Game 2 from the Winnipeg Jets, the series will shift to the American Airlines Center, where the Dallas Stars played to a record of 28-10-3 in the regular season and 3-1-0 in Round 1 versus the Colorado Avalanche.

Despite their convincing victory in Game 2, the Jets are fairly heavy underdogs in Game 3 after closing at -135 in Game 2, which suggests oddsmakers are pricing in a significant home-ice advantage for the Stars in this matchup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

It seemed reasonable to speculate that the Jets were a little out of gas entering Game 1 of this series after Sunday’s hotly contested Game 7 versus the St. Louis Blues, and head coach Scott Arniel made it perfectly clear that he felt his team needed to find a higher level of intensity in Game 2.

The Jets brought a significantly better performance in Game 2, as they did an excellent job of pressuring the Stars defence core on the forecheck, and their forwards did a good job of tracking back to help break up plays in the neutral zone. The Jets allowed only 10 high-danger scoring chances in Game 2 and provided Connor Hellebuyck with a great opportunity to continue finding his game.

Hellebuyck stopped all 21 shots faced in Game 2, finishing with a +2.3 GSAx rating in the game. Considering the offensive upside of the Stars, the Jets certainly played a defensive game to be proud of , but it was without a doubt Hellebuyck’s best game of the postseason.

The Jets have had a difficult time clearing out the front of the net at times once again this postseason, which has helped contribute to Hellebuyck’s struggles, but aside from that, their defensive process has been quite excellent.

The Jets have allowed only 2.51 xGA/60 in nine games this postseason, which is the best mark in the NHL. There are undoubtedly some intricacies that are not picked up by expected goals data, but based on average shot location and quantity, the Jets are doing an excellent job defensively this postseason.

Nikolaj Ehlers had his best game of the postseason, finishing with two goals and an assist, as well as seven shots on goal. On top of his impressive counting statistics, Ehlers had the best GameScore card of any Jets skater and was visibly dominant all night long. At his best, Ehlers is one of the more dynamic skaters in the league and is a key piece on the Jets power play, which was the most successful unit in the regular season.

The Stars’ overall process has not been overly convincing this postseason, and they have been statistically outchanced quite considerably throughout their opening nine games of the playoffs. They have some elite offensive talents capable of finishing chances at a higher than average rate and an elite goaltender in Jake Oettinger, but they are leaning quite heavily on those strengths to hide a fairly unconvincing style of play.

Dallas holds a 46.66% expected goal share this postseason and has allowed 3.66 xGA/60. Miro Heiskanen is one of the very best defenders in the NHL, and his absence provides a reasonable excuse, but their defensive play has been well below average for a significant sample of play.

It has been confirmed that Heiskanen will remain sidelined for Sunday’s matchup, which will continue to force the Stars to play hard minutes to the pairing of Esa Lindell and Cody Ceci, a duo that has struggled this postseason. They hold a 35.5% expected goal share and have allowed 3.56 xGA/60 this postseason.

Oettinger holds a +4.0 GSAx rating and a .910 save percentage in nine starts this postseason. He’s been an effective starter historically in the playoffs, and he’s certainly a key reason the Stars were able to get past a true Stanley Cup contender in the Colorado Avalanche in Round 1.

The Stars have one of the deepest offensive cores in the league and have found ways to win this postseason, but their defensive play has been significantly worse than Winnipeg’s to this point. If Winnipeg can continue to effectively pressure the Stars defence core and make moving pucks out of the defensive zone a struggle, it will make it difficult for the Stars’ high-end offensive players to shine.

Hellebuyck had his best game of the playoffs in Game 2, and it seems reasonable to think that he has regained his confidence and could be capable of stealing some games in this series.

With Heiskanen set to remain sidelined in this matchup and Hellebuyck back in form, it appears as though there is more value riding with the Jets as +120 underdogs in this matchup.