Game 2 of what could be a very compelling best-of-seven series between the St. Louis Blues and Winnipeg Jets will take place Monday evening at Canada Life Centre.

Game 1 had to be the best game of the NHL playoffs so far, as the Jets showed plenty of determination to emerge victorious from a thrilling back-and-forth affair.

The Jets will look to build on their strong finish to Game 1 from the outset of this matchup and head back to St. Louis with a 2-0 lead in the series.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Blues had a great start in Game 1 and certainly had the home faithful questioning if they were about to witness another playoff disappointment. Winnipeg was able to stick with it, though, and outplayed St. Louis quite significantly in the 39 minutes of play that followed Jordan Kyrou’s go-ahead power play goal in the second period.

The Jets held an 11-4 edge in high-danger scoring chances and outshot the Blues 26 to 17. Score effects certainly played a role in those crooked numbers; however, the Blues only held a one-goal edge, which suggests the way that the Jets were able to pour it on before finally breaking through is noteworthy.

The Jets absolutely caved in the Blues’ third defensive pairing of Ryan Suter and Nick Leddy, which is something that seemed quite possible entering the series. Suter has a severe lack of mobility at this point in his career, and the Jets did a good job of aggressively pressing the walls in his minutes to force tougher outlets. In 12:54 of time-on-ice, Leddy and Suter held a 3.9% expected goal share and were out-attempted 15 to 7.

The Blues’ highly skilled top stars did leave an impact on the game, as Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou scored a pair of pretty power play goals in the defeat. The Jets did do a good job of keeping the Blues’ second line of Kyrou, Jimmy Snuggerud, and Brayden Schenn under wraps at even strength, and did a relatively sound job of limiting the chances of the Blues’ dangerous top line of Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, and Jake Neighbours.

At the time of writing, it is unclear what adjustments head coach Jim Montgomery may make to his lineup. Though Tyler Tucker lacks playoff experience, most numbers suggest he is one of the Blues’ top six defenders, and inserting him into the lineup could be one option given the way the bottom two pairings struggled, even if it does mean someone in the bottom four playing on their off side.

Jordan Binnington was true to form in goal, and the only goal that he might want back was Alex Iafallo’s game-tying goal, as it is realistic to say Binnington should have had the bottom of the ice sealed in that situation. Still, Binnington stopped 0.65 goals above expected and made plenty of big saves with his team up 3-2.

Considering how last postseason went, the Jets’ response in Game 1 felt particularly important, as it would be easy to see how the team’s confidence might be shaken if things had worked out differently. Ultimately, the Jets were deserving 5-3 winners, though it was not necessarily the type of game most would have expected.

Connor Hellebuyck finished with a fairly ugly stat line, stopping just 82.4% percent of shots faced, and the idea that he played poorly seems to be overstated simply because of how greatly he struggled in the 2023-24 postseason.

While the Jets did do an excellent job defensively in front of Hellebuyck overall, on a goal-by-goal basis his performance was not as poor as the stats seem to suggest.

It’s reasonable to think Hellebuyck could have been farther out on Thomas’ game-opening power play tally, which was the worst of the three goals. Still, Thomas’s goal likely would not have drawn much attention for being a complete softy if it was given up by another goaltender, and the Jets penalty kill completely lost its shape thanks to a bad read by Adam Lowry, who needlessly overcommitted to Cam Fowler at the blue line.

Oskar Sunqvist’s goal, which came off of a fortuitous bounce out front, is simply not being saved at the NHL level often at all.

Jordan Kyrou’s beautiful tally on the power play also looked to be a pretty standard goal. Hellebuyck could have been out a little farther for sure, but it’s another goal that likely would not have garnered much attention if people weren’t already coming into the game ready to critique Hellebuyck’s play.

Based on the Jets’ strong defensive performance in Game 1, Hellebuyck may not need to be all that dominant in this series for the Jets to find success, but the team will certainly need to see him trend towards top form if they are to make a deep run.

The Jets’ dominant performance in periods two and three of Game 1 obviously revolved to some extent around the trailing scoreline, but it illustrates the point that Winnipeg should look to play aggressively regardless of the scoreline in this series. The Blues’ bottom two pairings can struggle to break out under pressure, and the Jets would be wise to continue forcing them to play on the back foot.

Kyle Connor deserves plenty of credit for what was a truly dominant performance in Game 1. Connor did a tremendous job of finding pockets of space and continuing to make high-level plays despite there being less space to work with in a playoff environment. He finished with 11 attempts on goal, alongside two assists and a critical go-ahead goal late in the third.

Connor’s performance was a good case in point to the notion that it’s not only gritty forwards who can have success come the postseason, but that skilled players can still be equally effective if they can keep their composure while having less ice to work with.

The betting prices on sides in the matchup remain identical to what we saw in Game 1, which seems fair to me based on the way that game went, and I have no interest in betting on a side in this matchup.

There does look to be value in backing Connor to record over 3.5 shots on goal at +130 after his spectacular performance in Game 1. Connor’s five shots on goal came from a total of 11 shot attempts and eight unblocked shot attempts. He will likely receive less ice time compared to the 22:21 he played in Game 1 with the Jets trailing throughout, but +130 still looks to be quite an appealing number for Connor to record four or more shots considering his dominant five-shot performance in Game 1.