The Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets begin a critical postseason when they host the St. Louis Blues for Game 1 at Canada Life Centre.

Aside from their incredible record of 56-22-4, there are plenty of arguments that suggest the Jets truly were the best team during the 2024-25 regular season. Based on the Jets’ current betting price of -225 to win this series, oddsmakers are offering the NHL’s best regular season team a 69% chance of getting through this series versus a Blues team that was among the league’s best teams in the final third of the season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Though the Blues did finish as the lowest seed in the Western Conference, they certainly appear to be better than a typical wild-card team.

On November 24th, the Blues held a record of 10-12-4 and opted to jump at the opportunity to bring in a proven NHL bench boss in Jim Montgomery. Under Montgomery, St. Louis is 35-18-7 and also holds a league-best 19-4-3 record since the 4 Nations Face-Off. The Blues’ underlying metrics have also improved recently, as since the 4 Nations break, they hold a 51.28% expected goal share.

Plenty of recent moves have worked out well for Blues GM Doug Armstrong, and suddenly his side features fairly strong depth compared to last season, when the team’s top line of Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, and Jordan Kyrou was the only real strength.

Armstrong’s decision to steal Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg via offer sheet from the Edmonton Oilers worked out even better than expected. Holloway posted 63 points in 77 games this season and made it much more feasible for the team to separate Thomas and Kyrou. Broberg has arguably been the team’s second-best defender, netting 29 points in 68 games and offering strong play defensively.

Holloway will be sidelined for the series opener for sure, but could potentially miss the entire series with a lower-body injury that is deemed week-to-week. Holloway’s recent injury has opened the door for highly touted prospect Jimmy Snuggerud to play top-six minutes, after Snuggerud signed an entry-level deal after completing a highly successful final season with the University of Michigan.

While the Blues defence corps is more formidable with Colton Parayko back in the lineup after missing over a month of play, the Jets’ strong depth in the back end could still prove to be one of their more notable advantages in this series. Ryan Suter and Justin Faulk were well below average NHL skaters once again this season, and the Jets certainly have the offensive depth to expose their shaky play.

While it would still be a massive stretch to say that Binnington provides an edge over Hellebuyck in goal in this, some observers have been bold enough to make that point after the Blues netminder emerged victorious over Hellebuyck in the 4 Nations Face-Off gold medal game, as well as the fact that Hellebuyck has not been able to dominate in postseason play the way he has in the regular season.

Binnington holds a +5.3 GSAx rating and a .900 save percentage in 56 games played this season and will be the starter in Game 1.

In Scott Arniel’s first season as head coach, the Jets did all they could to prove that they are a better team now than the one that bowed out in five games in last year’s opening round versus the Colorado Avalanche. Hellebuyck was absolutely fantastic all season long and will win his third Vezina Trophy in June, but it’s also clear that the Jets were a better team defensively this season under Arniel than they were last year.

From the outset in training camp, Arniel continued to stress the team’s need to insulate the interior areas of the ice and avoid the types of chances that Hellebuyck can not handle. While Hellebuyck finished with some horrible numbers in last year’s series versus the Avalanche, Colorado’s high-powered offence was able to create plenty of ultra-dangerous shots coming after passes through the royal road and did a great job of generating quality point shots with several bodies in front.

People tend to buy into the idea that teams and players who have failed in the postseason previously will fail once again, when really that is quite far from reality. Countless organizations have proven that it often takes some postseason failure to finally break through, and that’s an argument that suggests the Jets’ faithful have every right to believe this year could be different.

Despite a second-place finish, Hellebuyck was razor sharp in a high-pressure environment in the 4 Nations Face-Off, which should help instill faith that the game’s best goaltender is ready for this postseason.

Since January 1st, the Jets rank second with an expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) rating of 2.72. Expected goals against per 60 was a massive indicator of playoff success last season, as three of the conference finalists finished top six in the metric in the regular season.

The Jets did slow down offensively in the season’s final third, as they managed just 2.85 goals per game in their final 27 games. Part of that came down to the team suffering from some natural shooting percentage regression compared to some unsustainably strong finishing in the first half of the season, but injuries to Gabriel Vilardi and Neal Pionk certainly contributed to the Jets’ lesser offensive play down the stretch.

The Jets will be without one key offensive piece in Nikolaj Ehlers in this matchup, as he’s listed as week-to-week with a foot injury. Ehlers generated 63 points in 69 games this season and was a key contributor on the Jets’ top-rated power play.

The Jets do not appear to have gotten much luck drawing a formidable Blues side in Round 1 after winning the Presidents’ Trophy, but there is still plenty of reason to think they can come out of this compelling first-round matchup unscathed.

While it wasn’t the case last season versus the Avalanche, the Jets have plenty of strengths that should translate well to playoff hockey. They have plenty of skaters capable of doing damage offensively in the gritty areas of the ice and a defence corps that can help contribute offensively with quality shots from the points.

The Jets were a better defensive team this season than last and should be able to do a better job of limiting the Blues’ true grade ‘A’ scoring opportunities in this series than they did last season versus Colorado. I’m not a believer that Hellebuyck is incapable of dominating in the playoffs, and having the game’s best netminder should make Winnipeg a very tough out this postseason.

The Jets seem to be flying a little under the radar this postseason, as there seems to be a little too much stock being put into the idea that their dominant regular season means nothing just because they struggled in the playoffs a year ago.

At -120 or better, I see value in backing the Jets to kick off the postseason with a regulation win on home ice.