We are in the dregs of summer, so we take a critical look at the Winnipeg Jets organizational cupboards and highlight who we feel are the Jets’ “Top 20 Prospects” when looking at a combination of potential and probability of positive impact for the franchise.

We continue our prospect profile with the Jets 2.0 first European-born selection, the right-shot defenseman, Jan Kostalek.

Prior to last season, Jan Kostalek had been getting noticeably better each and every season. He was always known for his safe, defensive game, and had developed some offense while in the QMJHL. His final season was quite the performance, scoring 46 points in 57 games and earning awards like QMJHL’s Top Defender, Top Plus/Minus, Best Defensive Defenseman, and also being nominated to the QMJHL’s All-Star Team.

Each year Kostalek improved, which should be expected with most young players who are developing both physically and mentally. However, Kostalek’s improvement was more than what was expected given the typical development curve, which showed up the numbers with the now proprietary PCS model.

Kostalek struggled with the transition to pro in his rookie season, a pattern noticeable with Jets’ prospects in the AHL, and because of this his stock has fallen. pGPS, a PCS-like model constructed by Jeremy Davis and Dylan Kirby, suggests that Kostalek’s “fall” may not have been as far as many have perceived.

For one, the AHL is a large step up, and there are few Major Junior players who successfully make the transition. While nine points in 52 games was not the same performance as Kostalek’s final season in the QMJHL, pGPS actually indicates it is his second best season when accounting for his age and the league he is playing in.

There have been 511 players to score similarly when adjusting for era, who also were a similar age and height to Kostalek. Seventy-nine of these players, or 15.5 percent, moved on to careers in the NHL for at least 200 games. This percentage of cohorts that became NHL regulars is higher than any of Kostalek’s previous seasons, aside from his final QMJHL campaign.

While Kostalek still has a decent chance of being a NHL defender, unless his AHL offensive game develops unprecedently like he did before in the QMJHL, the righty will likely top out as a depth defender, with potentially being a third-pair regular who can kill penalties.

His upside is low, with only one really strong offensive-production season, and because of this he has fallen five spots to 19 overall.