by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
The Winnipeg Jets’ offense has nothing to show for its last two efforts against the Montreal Canadiens, but the team’s pattern of bouncing back could mean that the third time’s the charm. The Jets are even-money +100 home underdogs and the Montreal Canadiens are -120 away favourites with a 5.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Wednesday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The Jets are 11-9 in their last 20 games as an underdog at home, and the OVER has hit in five of their eight home-underdog matchups this season. The Canadiens are 5-7 in 12 games this season as an away favourite, but have won two of the past three matchups. Head-to-head, Montreal is 6-4 in its last 10 away games against Winnipeg at the Bell MTS Centre with the OVER hitting seven times at betting sites.
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Canadiens vs Jets | OddsShark Matchup Report
Montreal beat Winnipeg 4-2 on Monday, but the Jets had a 53.2 expected-goals percentage (xGF%) in the five-on-five phase, per Natural Stat Trick. The Canadiens have outscored the Jets 9-0 at five-on-five in their past two matchups, and also boast edges in xGF% (52.1), scoring-chances percentage (61.1) and high-danger chances (53.4) over five matchups this season. The Canadiens’ power play is three-for-eight and the Jets’ power play is five-for-14. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)
The Canadiens, who are 13-8-7, sort of beat the Jets at their own game on Monday when two goals from Tyler Toffoli elevated them to the win despite a third consecutive game of being on the short end of xGF%. The Toffoli line with center Nick Suzuki and right wing Brendan Gallagher was the only Montreal unit that generated the same amount of offensive volume that it allowed, but the Canadiens capitalized at a good rate while getting defensive leadership from Jeff Petry and stout goaltending. Gallagher, per MoneyPuck, had the best expected goals of any Canadiens non-scorer on Monday.
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Montreal ranks second in the 31-team NHL in shots-for percentage (56.3) and third in both xGF% (55.5) and high-danger chances share (56.9). The Canadiens are 10th in goal scoring (3.21 per game) and ninth in goals against (2.61). Their power play ranks 14th (22.1 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 20th (76.2).
Carey Price was stellar on Monday, saving 1.74 goals above expected. The veteran Canadiens goalie is 9-5-4 with a 2.59 goals-against average and .909 save percentage. Overall, Montreal has very little drop-off in net when Jake Allen, who is 4-3-3 with a 2.28 goals-against average and .922 save percentage, takes a turn.
The Jets, who are 17-9-2, failed to score a five-on-five goal for the sixth time this season on Monday. However, they are 5-1 this season in the next game after that happens. Monday’s outcome was not due to a lack of scoring chances from either the Mark Scheifele-Paul Stastny-Blake Wheeler or Pierre-Luc Dubois-Kyle Connor-Nikolaj Ehlers lines. The main question with Winnipeg is whether the Josh Morrisey-led defense corps can contain the Canadiens forwards. Montreal’s high-danger shooting percentage against Winnipeg is the best among the Jets’ North Division rivals, but that’s only from a five-game sample, so regression is possible.
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Winnipeg ranks 22nd in shots-for percentage (48.3), 26th in xGF% (46.0) and 31st in high-danger chances share (43.0). The Jets are seventh in goal scoring (3.32 per game) and 15th in goals against (2.89). Their power play ranks seventh (26.5 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 18th (76.8).
For Connor Hellebuyck, who is 12-8-2 with a 2.82 GAA and .910 save percentage, Monday was the eighth start within his last 10 that he allowed at least three goals. Hellebuyck saved 0.28 goals above average in that outing, which means the Jets’ goaltending has a high ceiling for improvement.