by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
Sportsbooks seem to keep waiting for the other skate to drop with the Winnipeg Jets, who seem to have moneyline history on their side in a rematch against the rival who handed them their worst loss of the season. The Jets are even-money +100 home underdogs and the Montreal Canadiens are -120 away favourites with a 5.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Monday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The Jets are 8-3 in their last 11 games as a home underdog, with the total finishing UNDER in six of those matchups at sports betting sites. The Canadiens are 4-7 this season as an away favourite, with the total going UNDER in five of their last eight games as a favourite on the road. Montreal won 7-1 at home in the teams’ last matchup on March 6, but the Jets are 6-3 in their last nine games as an underdog against the Canadiens.
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Canadiens vs Jets | OddsShark Matchup Report
The Jets lead the season series 3-1, but have been outscored 11-7 by Montreal in the five-on-five phase. Head-to-head, the Canadiens rate higher in expected goals-for percentage, or xGF% (53.7), scoring-changes percentage (55.7) and high-danger chances share (54.1), according to Natural Stat Trick. The Canadiens’ power play is two-for-six and the Jets’ power play is three-for-11.(All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)
The Canadiens are 12-8-7 and coming off consecutive losses to the Calgary Flames, where they had two of their three worst xGF% ratings all season. The other bottom-three effort was against the Jets on March 4, before that 7-1 blowout. Bouncing back again will likely require Montreal to have at least one line besides the Jesperi Kotkaniemi-Tyler Toffoli-Brendan Gallagher unit step up to provide offensive leadership. The Canadiens are fifth-best in the NHL in limiting high-danger chances against.
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Montreal ranks second in the 31-team NHL in shots-for percentage (56.7) as well as third in both xGF% (55.9) and in high-danger chances share (57.2). The Canadiens are 11th in goal scoring (3.19 per game) and 10th in goals against (2.63). Their power play ranks 14th (21.3 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 19th (77.6).
Jake Allen, who is 4-3-3 with  a 2.28 goals-against average and .922 save percentage, could be due for a goaltending start. Starter Carey Price, who is 8-5-4 with a 2.62 GAA and .907 save percentage, played against Calgary on Saturday. Both Allen (.875) and Price (.897) have save percentages under .900 this season against Winnipeg
The challenge for the Jets, who are 17-8-2, is to avoid a letdown after earning five-of-six possible points during their last series against the North Division-leading Toronto Maple Leafs. Winnipeg had a solid 63.9 xGF% in the series finale against Toronto on the strength of big nights from the Mark Scheifele-Paul Stastny-Blake Wheeler first line and the supporting cast. Third-line wing Mason Appleton has scored in each of his last two games. The Jets are likely to be outshot, but they outrank the Canadiens in both high-danger shooting and save percentages.
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Winnipeg ranks 21st in shots-for percentage (48.2), 27th in xGF% (45.7) and 31st, or last, in high-danger chances share (42.8). The Jets are fifth in goal scoring (3.37 per game) and 14th in goals against (2.85). Their power play ranks 10th (25.0 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 18th (77.6).
Connor Hellebuyck, who is 12-7-2 with a 2.81 GAA and .911 save percentage, should be back in goal after backup Laurent Brossoit did the honours in Toronto on March 13.  Hellebuyck has a .906 save percentage this season against Montreal.
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