By The Numbers: Dano and Petan prove they should stay

It is still early in the season, but the Winnipeg Jets have already provided some ups and downs for fans. Major injuries have been a big down.

The injuries started early on with Bryan Little falling almost right away, and since then the Jets injury reserve climbed up to a peak of nine regular roster players.

With the injuries came opportunity, and two players have made the most of their opportunity.

Scoring Efficiency

Even Strength (5v5)

5v5Sc

5v5 production relative to 60 minutes of 5v5 play

Production rates typically correlate to true talent better than raw totals or points per game. Both of the Jets players scored well relative to their ice time. Marko Dano even carries the third highest pace on the team, behind only Nikolaj Ehlers and Mark Scheifele.

The median scoring rate for a top line forward is about two points per sixty minutes of play, while second and third lines fall at about 1.7 and 1.4 respectively. Dano’s production relative to ice time sits above that of the average first line forward, while Nic Petan has been scoring closer to the second line average than the third line.

If we look at full carer as a Jet, Dano paces 1.84 points per sixty minutes, while Petan paces 1.34 points. If we look exclusively after Petan’s first stay in the AHL, his point pace jumps up to 1.69 points. 

Power Play (5v4)

The two have been productive on the power play as well. While the sample is extremely small and the production pace is extraordinarily unsustainable, they have shown an ability to be effective with the man advantage.

Dano scored two goals in only 8.6 minutes of 5v4 play, while Petan has two primary assists and one secondary in 17.4 minutes of play.

Out Scoring

Corsi

5v5 shots (goals, saves, misses, blocks) rates for and against, percentage of shots for relative to all shots, and team performance with player on-ice relative to on-bench. All numbers are adjusted for score effects, home/away advantage, and zone deployment.

We, the hockey analytics community, care about Corsi not because we care about shots more so than goals but rather because we care about future goals more than past goals. In other words, Corsi predicts future outscoring better, which means that performance in shot metrics is more likely to align to true talent rather than goal metrics, like +/-.

The Jets out shot their opponents with both players on the ice. With Dano on the ice, the Jets have controlled about 53% of shots, which is about one-and-a-half a percentage point more than they have controlled with him on the bench. Petan’s two-way numbers are exceptional, with the Jets controlling 57 percent of shots, which is about eight percentage points more than with him on the bench.

While Corsi may align with true talent earlier and more often than goal metrics, the samples are still fairly small with the two Jets.

Over his entire 30 game career as a Jet, the team controlled 52.8 percent of shots with Dano on the ice, a +3.2 relative control with him on the bench. For Petan’s 34 games as a Jet, the team has controlled 50.4 percent of shots, which is a -0.2 relative Corsi, but he has carried a 56.1 percent Corsi and +8.9 relative Corsi in his 20 games since his first AHL assignment.

Closing Thoughts

With their performance, Dano and Petan proved that they should be here to stay. The team controlled play with the two on the ice, while both produced very well given their ice time.

While part of their excellent performance has come at a cost, with the Jets sheltering the two young forwards as much as possible and transferred the workload to Mark Scheifele, they still have performed well given the circumstances.

While the Jets anxiously await the return of Mathieu Perreault and Bryan Little into their top-six, Petan and Dano look ready to stay in the NHL. When the two Jets do return, Little and Perreault could form a line with one of Ehlers, Blake Wheeler, or Patrik Laine, taking some of the workload off of Mark Scheifele.

It would then be advantageous for the Jets to form a sheltered scoring line revolving the Petan and Dano, maybe with the likes of Joel Armia or Kyle Connor on the other wing.

Regardless, while being late cuts in training camp, Dano and Petan proven their worth to the Jets.

All numbers are courtesy of Corsica


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  • Eddie O rules!

    Goo article, Garret. I’ve long been a fan of these two players, and have felt that neither have gotten the respect they deserve.

    Honestly, if it comes down to it, Kyle Connor should be sent down to the Moose before most of our other young players. He’s a good hockey player, but hasn’t been very sharp so far, and some seasoning could do him well, especially when so many other youngsters have proven themselves much more deserving. Both Petan and Dano have more points in half as many games as Connor, and substantially better posession numbers to boot.

  • jetsfanmike

    Isn’t it great when the advanced stats of hockey analytics match 100% perfectly with the eye test?

    Love the article, but I still feel the overwhelming urge to say “Thank you Captain Obvious.”.

    I guess it’s because anyone and everyone who’s watched the Jets since Dano and Petan have joined the team seems unanimous in the opinion that the team’s better with them than it was without them.

    Hopefully Maurice doesn’t do the unthinkable and send these two down once all the regulars are healthy again.

    Thanks for the article Garret. As always, the insight that you provide through the numbers is truly outstanding.