Drew Stafford and Tyler Myers 300 days later

It’s been just over 300 days since Kevin Cheveldayoff sent shockwaves throughout the hockey world as the Winnipeg Jets swapped Evander Kane, Zach Bogosian, and Jason Kasdorf for the Buffalo Sabres’ Tyler Myers, Drew Stafford, Joel Armia, Brendan Lemieux, and a first round pick (which turned into Jack Roslovic).

The trade was generally considered a great one. The Jets received a piece that could help them in a playoff push for an injured forward that was well on his way out anyways. They also swapped underperforming big-minute, right-shot defenders but garnered the one on a more small-market friendly contract.

There was however some red flags with both players. Neither Tyler Myers nor Drew Stafford excelled in the shot metrics, and there were signs that their production was unsustainable and unlikely to repeat. Some hoped that small sample size or a lack of training camp with the Jets could be a leading factor.

With nearly equal samples both this and last season, let’s look at how the two have progressed.

Tyler Myers

myers

Myers has already moved into a reduced role. He spent parts of this season as a 3rd pair defender with Ben Chiarot while playing all of last year in the Jets top-four. Due to this, Myers has seen his average ice time drop by just over two minutes a game.

In terms of shot metrics, we see some changes in either direction.

With controlling all shots (goals, saves, misses, and blocks), the Jets were slightly out shot this season while slightly out shooting their opponents last season with Myers on the ice. The difference between the Jets with Myers on the ice versus on the bench has improved — as seen in the relative Corsi numbers. Steve Burtch’s dCorsi looks at performance relative to expectations, where Myers is less in the red than last year.

Fenwick (all shots with the exception of blocks) has been shown to predict goal differentials for defenders with a slightly stronger relationship at full season samples. We again see Myers doing worse in the percentage of control, but this time Myers also does worse with the on-ice versus on-bench numbers.

Myers’ point production per minute has fallen starkly, as we predicted it would. It may be a bit on the low side though, with expecting about a 1.00 point per sixty minutes over the long run.

Myers’ point production and the Jets production in Fenwick events on the power play has dropped, although the Jets have done better in controlling Corisi events on the penalty kill.

Drew Stafford

stafford

Like Myers, Stafford has seen a drop in ice time and point production. The latter being predicted over the summer.

For 5v5 we see that the Jets control of Corsi is essentially unchanged with Stafford on the ice both this and last season. A lack of depth though has hurt the Jets and so we see Stafford’s relative numbers less negative. Stafford also performs better by dCorsi, although still significantly negative.

While Fenwick slightly outperforms Corsi in season-one to season-two goal predictive ability for defenders, WAR-On-Ice’s Scoring Chance tends to outperform for forwards. The Jets control a slightly better percentage this season than last with Stafford on the ice, and the Jets have actually done slightly better with Stafford on the ice than on the bench.

Stafford’s even strength scoring has taken a severe hit, which we expect to likely regress somewhere between the two numbers, likely around 1.7-1.8 points per 60 minutes.

Stafford has scored similarly to last year on the power play, but the Jets have not been creating quite as much with him on the ice. He has also done acceptable on the penalty kill despite not taking any significant minutes last year.

Closing Thoughts

Nearly a year later, and with about equal amount of games both this and last season, we can take a look at how the newer Jets have performed and what we should expect from them in the future.

Myers has struggled to return to his rookie-of-the-year form, and looks as though he will never reach the ceiling many expected of him. By some numbers he has done better but there is no doubt that he remains as simply the Jets third best right-handed defender.

Myers may still be a top-four defender in some facets, but he still lacks in overall impact. The Jets will struggle to contend if Myers is asked to carry the pair or be one of the stars of the Jets defensive core.

Stafford meanwhile has always been a weak defensive player who can still score. This year his scoring numbers have taken a hit, but he is no longer posting the worst two-way numbers on the team. He is still not a player that you want in the top-six optimally, unless you surround him with talent that can carry him — which may be the case with Mathieu Perreault and Mark Scheifele.

Stafford is still a middle-six scorer, although has been struggling to put the puck in the net. He needs to be protected though and surround by talent to carry.

While neither player will carry the team into the promise land, they are still useful support pieces. The issue with the Jets though is that both may be playing in a role above what is optimal and cannot carry their line or pair.

  • That trade made the Jets franchise into a regular playoff team as far as I’m concerned. Kane and Bogosian are good but they’ve both been injured this yr. The video game move would be to get the two young goalies signed to long multi-year deals and be comfortable playing together for a Cup rather than pulling a C.Price and playing for regular season glory.
    I’ve been wrong about my previous posts. Galbraith and Kennedy no doubt discussed what they alluded to. The reason that has been pointed out to me is 30% of females are aroused easily, and this affects their judgment. So even though my dad taught me to treat women with respect, this is true for only 70%. This is no good for key infrastructures like military, engineering, gvmt, and unfortunately for what should be Hamilton’s flagship hospital: healthcare. The first responders in Wpg and here know what I’m talking about.
    …they’ve suggested future hockey improvements. They had alluded that you can’t make the crossbar/goal-ice an arc; this would be tough to determine if a goal had been scored. The idea is to increase the area of the net. A clue was that a goalie’s best friend is being bumped. This means there is traffic blocking the shot. They said it is no good to make the net wider as will just result in more shot-blocking. I figure this is boring to put players in a shell rather than breaking out.
    The innovation is have a crease 1/3 the size of the present one, that a goalie is not allowed to touch. Have a larger crease 3x larger than the present one; if an opposing player is in there even shoved in, the goalie can use the crease for up to one second after the opposing player vacated it. There is no contact at all allowed on goalies, who suddenly become full-bodied athletic soccer goalies. SH-ed, a body check in the big crease is almost as good as clearing the zone.

    For basketball, the advice is to make it a contact sports until the zone is cleared. The alternative is to pass it out well (Nash) or be physical (Shaq). I was wondering if W.Chamberlain was the greatest ever (never saw play), they said 3rd behind Jordan (1st) and Lebron. I suppose the first part of a drive would be the most exciting, and you’d get some playoff style mucking it up in the offensive rebound area. I suppose materials science would be important in developing bouncy but knee-cushioning courts. Pads needed.

  • #12MorrisLukowich

    All stats aside…The Jets WON this trade hands down. Kane & Bogo are often injured and rarely play more than 50-60 games. Myers is a tireless, HUGE Clydesdale workhorse that fast, skilled forwards have a hard time getting around. Given the right pairing, Myers should be a force for years to come. Stafford is a consummate pro and he brings a skill set that the young guns can absorb. He’s helping Schiefele develop into a legitimate #2 center. I’d like to see Lowry return to being the #3 center between Ehlers & Armia. Since Burmi is no power forward, his skill set as a penalty killer is probably better served on the 4th line with Copp & Thorburn.

    • #12MorrisLukowich

      Right, and ignoring everything but that stats the Jets HAVEN’t won this trade at all?

      You kind of need to include the stats, or otherwise your just making stuff up (note: I said include, not rely solely upon and ignore all other information/opinions)

      How is Meyers a workhorse? He’s getting LESS minutes. How are forwards having so much trouble getting around him? He’s giving up more shot attempts on his goalie then he’s creating.

      those are two facts (not opinions) that run 100% counter to your summation.

      This is akin to saying the short fat kid running at 1mph is faster then the athlete running at 6mph because his little legs are turning over faster.

      It may look like he’s running faster/working harder, but if it’s not ACTUALLY making him move faster, it’s not really working is it?

  • #12MorrisLukowich

    While I’m ranting about why sports aren’t as good as hockey, soccer needs a 2 minute time limit from the time a goalie touches it, to get a shot reaching the crease lines. And if the goalie touches it a 2nd time, he should have to dribble it out of the box before clearing it. Otherwise in either case: penalty kick. But a lot of sports is from playing it or watching people play it. Everyone played soccer. Baseball is easier than hockey. And pickup football is a rite of jr high. Basketball I suppose is what you are stuck with in an inner-city where people don’t pay taxes for parks. I’d’ve moved to tree country in my USA teens.