How much money is Anthony Peluso worth?

Welcome back to our contract evaluation series, looking at what we should expect the Winnipeg Jets’ unrestricted and restricted free agents earn given how statistically similar players were paid.

Using WAR-on-Ice‘s Euclidian Distance application produced by Manny, we will produce a list of similarly aged players who who are comparable in: goal production, assist production, point production, shot volume production, relative Corsi percentage, relative scoring chance percentage, relative goal percentage, percentage of team’s time on ice.

Our next look is none other than the Jets pugilist specialist, Anthony Peluso.

The Jets already announced signing the fourth-line heavyweight to a two year deal with an AAV of 675K.

Peluso is not a major contributor to the Jets. 

He’s amassed seven points in 102 games of hockey, while averaging less than six minutes a game and essentially no special team minutes. His production pace of 0.71 points per sixty minutes is below that of even fourth line average. His score-adjusted Corsi percentage of 48.1, which essentially is the definition of average for fourth line players.

Suffice to say, Peluso is not a world beating fourth-line player that you move up the roster when injuries occur. But, if you are going to carry a facepuncher, is 675K too much or good value for a player with Peluso’s on-ice impact?

Peluso’s numbers are as follow:

Screen shot 2015-06-18 at 8.32.50 AM

The ten closest statistical cohorts are as follow:

Screen shot 2015-06-18 at 8.33.20 AM

It’s pretty much as we expected.

We already knew that Peluso would be compared to the lesser players in the league with his on-ice numbers and low ice time.

So what does the average statistical cohort look like compared to Anthony Peluso:

Screen shot 2015-06-18 at 8.37.23 AM

The average statistical cohort to Peluso makes a Cap adjusted 741K a season in salary. Meanwhile Peluso is making 675K.

You may have differing opinions on whether or not a pugilist is needed, especially with the breed dying out in the NHL.

You can’t say though that the Jets didn’t get good value with the signing relative to what the average Peluso like player makes.

  • I’m thinking Peluso’s expected salary should be lower, with an inclusion of AHL salaries. You’d have to determine what’s the likelihood of a player like him to even maintain the NHL portion of his deal, then use that as a control against the other comparable contracts.

    Chewing over how I might do this…

    Maybe, take the cohort, and express following year NHL GP as a proportion of total available NHL GP (removing from the total games lost to injury/illness/suspension/personal leave).

    Fraser (67/67)
    Peters (44/79)
    Wright (59/62) (had to do same year; KHL in following)
    Sill (63/70) (same year for obvious reasons)
    Boll (43/43)
    Pelley (0/82)
    Konopka (82/82)
    Gazdic (40/56)
    Hordichuk (45/78)
    Lacouture (6/82)

    Total (449/701) 64%

    In other words, of the ensuing year, these players spent 64% of their available playing time in the AHL or healthy scratched. More precise to the intent would be to just focus on time spent in AHL…so:

    Fraser (67/67)
    Peters (79/79)
    Wright (62/62) (had to do same year; KHL in following)
    Sill (70/70) (same year for obvious reasons)
    Boll (43/43)
    Pelley (0/82)
    Konopka (82/82)
    Gazdic (56/56)
    Hordichuk (78/78)
    Lacouture (6/82)

    Total (543/701) 77%

    So, probably need to introduce $0 “dummy” players (or at least $70,000 “dummy” players if this is focused on salary) at a count of 1/4 of the total of comparable players.

    If I do that:

    Avg ($0 “dummies”): $562K
    Avg ($70K “dummies”): $576K