The season has been laid to rest.
Fans have completed their lamenting of the Anaheim Ducks sweeping the Winnipeg Jets. The healing process has begun.
But, before full closure can be completed, an autopsy of the Jets season must be initiated.
We turn our evidence-based breakdown of the Jets #fancystats sensation, Mathieu Perreault.
Numbers include all situations including non 5v5 TOI.
Mathieu Perreault matched his career high for goals, despite carrying the second lowest shooting percentage of his career. He reached these point totals, just 2 assists below career highs, by playing the most minutes of his career.
Yes, Mathieu Perreault has always been this good but has never been really given enough chance to shine.
Graph courtesy of WAR-on-Ice.
Rankings are out of the Jets 17 forwards with 50+ 5v5 minutes, except special team minutes are each out of 11 Jet forwards.
Last summer when Rhys Jessop and myself were advising teams to take a shot at Mathieu Perreault, we were telling everyone “Yes, he plays sheltered minutes, but he destroys them.” Now, for the first time in his career, we can say that Perreault has played non-sheltered minutes… and he still looks good doing it.
Despite playing career highs in minutes he still has a lot more he could give in terms of even strength time.
Perreault played 5v5 minutes typical of a second line player for the first time in his career (just too, as he was only 0.04 mins/GP over). As we can see here, he still dominated those minutes, and seemed to only be getting better.
Visual courtesy of Micah McCurdy.
At first percentages were causing the Jets to be outscored with Perreault on the ice. They eventually normalized though and Perreault’s goal differential performance matched his shot differential performance.
Perreault’s two most common linemates were with Mark Scheifele and Michael Frolik. During that time the trio carried a 56 per cent Corsi, with Scheifele and Frolik posting 52 and 55 when away.
Perreault played both left wing and centre, and he was the Jets second best option in terms of performance in both positions.
Perreault has always been considered one of the most underrated players in terms of underlying metric performances. He’s starting to get recognized playing more minutes with the Jets, but still seems under valued.
Perreault was one of four Jets to outpace 2 points per 60 minutes at even strength. Unlike Lee Stempniak or Drew Stafford though, this is normal for Perreault. In fact, this pace is below Perreault’s 2.17 career average. Since the 2009-2010 season, Perreault has been the 29th fastest pacing points per minute forward.
Perreault posted the Jets best Corsi numbers after Eric O`Dell, and without the offensive zone push O`Dell received. The Jets Corsi differential was far better with Perreault on the ice than with him on the bench, and that’s normal for him too. dCorsi suggests that Perreault could have taken far tougher and more minutes and handle them with ease.
Adding a shot quality element into Perreault’s shot differentials still shows his dominance. Perreault had the best results for scoring chances, and was second only to Blake Wheeler in weighted shots.
Despite only playing 62 games and only 0.04 minutes per game more than what the lowest 2nd line players play, Perreault had a huge underlying impact on the Jets goal differentials. Goals Above Replacement places Perreault only below Bryan Little, and essentially tied with Blake Wheeler in impact.
Mathieu Perreault is quickly becoming a Jets favourite, yet even then he is probably underrated and under appreciated.
The Jets gave Perreault the biggest role of his career thus far, and even then it is not enough. Perreault deserves to be a staple in the Jets top six.
Whether that’s as a winger or a centre, he dominates his competition. The Jets severely out shoot, out attempt, out chance, and out score when Perreault is on the ice. Those are good things to have happen.