The season has been laid to rest.
Fans have completed their lamenting of the Anaheim Ducks sweeping the Winnipeg Jets. The healing process has begun.
But, before full closure can be completed, an autopsy of the Jets season must be initiated.
We turn our evidence-based breakdown of the Jets season to Jets Nation’s favourite call up, Eric O’Dell.
Numbers include all situations including non 5v5 TOI.
Eric O`Dell did not score a slew of points, but eleven games with 7 mins as a depth forward is not the greatest of opportunities either. Over the past two seasons O`Dell has scored eight points over 41 games.
In the AHL O`Dell has been a proficient shot volume generator and a high percentage finisher. With a career shooting percentage of 16 percent, the finishing has translated to the NHL but the shot volume has not, although O`Dell did increase by about a full shot per sixty minutes.
Rankings are out of the Jets 17 forwards with 50+ 5v5 minutes, except special team minutes are each out of 11 Jet forwards.
Usage numbers can be a bit crazy with small samples, as they have yet to normalize.
O`Dell was deployed in the offensive zone 27 times, while only 10 times in the defensive zone. The previous season though O`Dell showed he does not to need to be sheltered to that extent.
O`Dell was given less ice time per game than any Jet not named Jim Slater or Anthony Peluso. He faced low competition but received even less support with linemates and defenders.
In terms of two way numbers, O`Dell has dominated. This is extremely interesting, since the Jets have rarely carried players on their bottom end –all of whom were O`Dell’s linemates– that excelled in out attempting their opponents.
Visual courtesy of Micah McCurdy.
O`Dell mostly played between Chris Thorburn and Matt Halischuk, making O`Dell’s accomplishments in shots for/against all the more impressive.
O`Dell’s single point placed him below the average pace of a fourth liner, although small sample sizes skews results heavily. For example, had O’Dell scored one more point, the pace would be doubled and typical of third line players average. Over his NHL career O`Dell has scored at a 1.2 points per sixty minute pace, which is between third and fourth line average.
O`Dell had an extremely high Corsi percentage, which is expected given his huge offensive zone push. Still, dCorsi suggests that such sheltering was unnecessary, with O`Dell out performing the average NHL player under similar deployment.
O`Dell’s scoring chances numbers heavily contrast his Corsi, which is most likely due to super small sample size. In short run Corsi is far more effective in evaluating players. We can see this when we expand the sample to O`Dell’s career, posting a 53.48 scoring chance percentage and +3.44 relative scoring chances.
In eleven games and very little ice time per game, the Goals Above Replacement statistic does not really have a chance to evaluate the player much beyond 0. O`Dell’s career has been above replacement level though.
Eric O`Dell is a pending UFA due to insufficient NHL games played to keep him as a RFA for an additional season. This means the Jets could see O`Dell move to another team as a solid depth option, in identical fashion as Zach Redmond last year.
Whether as a Jet or otherwise, O`Dell should help his team as an above average fourth line player who can fill in for the third line without much loss in skill. There is also the possibility O`Dell turns out as a decent third line player as well.
With exceptional two-way numbers, above average depth scoring, and potential seen with O`Dell’s 148 points in 177 AHL games, O`Dell is a player a NHL team should chance with carry in their roster next season.