By the Numbers: The Winnipeg Jets lines by Wins Above Replacement

Recently, we at Jets Nation looked at the performance of the Winnipeg Jets’ roster in terms of Goals Above Replacement.

The statistic estimates the impact a player had on the team’s goal differential relative to that of a replacement level player. We can then take this one step further, using the average goal differential to win differential translation for teams to then create an estimate for Wins Above Replacement.

Let’s take a look at the Jets.

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(Visual courtesy of Dom Luszczyszyn, GAR numbers courtesy of WAR-on-Ice)

The Winnipeg Jets have quite the potential roster turnover this summer. Michael Frolik, Drew Stafford, Lee Stempniak, Jiri Tlusty, Jim Slater, and (RFA) Ben Chiarot are all looking at negotiating new contracts this summer.

There are a lot of possible holes and wins the Jets will have to replace and upgrade.

This does not necessarily mean that all improvement will have to come with replacement. There is the development of younger players like Mark Scheifele, Jacob Trouba, and Adam Lowry. There’s also players who may carried more than their fair share of unlucky bounces. For example, a player with a shooting percentage dip season will likely bounce back and provide better value the next year.

Of course, the opposite can be true of those with inflated seasons as well.

Numbers and history suggest that it is unlikely that Byran Little, Ondrej Pavelec, or even Stafford provide similar or better WAR numbers next season.

Little had the 9th highest WAR in the NHL. While Little is grotesquely undervalued and under appreciated by many, he is unlikely a top 10 NHL player.

Stafford carried over a 2.5 point per game pace as a Jet with highly inflated percentages. Only six NHL players have sustained a similar or better pace over the past three seasons.

Pavelec posted a career year despite actually pacing under his norm for most of the season due to a completely ridiculous streak of standing on his head for nine of his final twelve games, almost pulling the injured Jets on his back into the playoffs.

Kevin Cheveldayoff had quite the successful year. He constructed a roster that dragged itself into the second playoffs ever in its franchise history, and first ever since the move to Winnipeg.

This summer will be an even bigger one for the organization.

Can Chevy push the Jets further? Will he be able to construct the first Jets 2.0 squad to win a playoff game?

Only time will tell.

  • t_bison

    Interesting article. I just have a few questions/comments:

    1) What are the average WARs for each line across the NHL?

    2) Are the WARs calculated just for the player’s time with the Jets or for the entire season? That would explain how poor Myers’ WAR is.

    3) I am not sure I would put much stock in a metric that values Tlusty over Frolik (no disrespect to Tlusty), Stuart over Myers and grades Stafford and Thorburn equally.