Jets Nation Recap: Winnipeg wins three in a row, one step closer to promise land!!!

Hands up if you called Ondrej Pavelec having a 100 percent save percentage on a back-to-back and Chris Thorburn scoring the game winning goal, because that combination has never happened before…

…but it did, and it was awesome!!

The opening period had a lot of chances going either way, with a slight edge to the Winnipeg Jets. Both goalies stood strong though, with neither team scoring in the first.

The second found the Jets taking over, dominating in chances and also frustrating the St. Louis Blues into taking penalties. It was in this period that the Jets lone goal was scored by none other than Thorburn.

The Jets went into defensive shell mode for the third period for the third game in a row, causing many Jet fans to lose to lose hair and nails while gaining weight and blood pressure. In the end Pavelec kept the door closed on the Blues and pushed the Jets one step closer to the playoffs.

Let’s break it down.

Three Keys

Back-to-back Shutouts – Ondrej Pavelec over his career has averaged a below replacement level save percentage in games played without rest. The odds were stacked against Pavelec, but the odds are not destiny unless the probability is 100 percent. Pavelec did perform well and the Jets won because of it.

5v5 Domination (except defensive shell) – After the second the Jets had only 2 players with a negative Fenwick differential and not one player with a negative Corsi differential. They were controlling the game against a team that tends to control the game. It was not the same though in the third. The Jets allowed the Blues to attack back and “played safe” by only playing dump ‘n chase. Usually this will come back and bite a team but Pavelec saved the Jets from that outcome.

Play Off Push – Micah McCurdy’s model over at Hockeystats.ca had a regulation loss as just under a 25 percentage point swing, depending on the outcome of the game. Luckily (well more good fortune than luckily) the Jets won which instead improved the Jets chances by just under 12 percentage points, which now situates them near 94 percent chance of playoffs, until we get the outcome of the Los Angeles Kings and Calgary Flames games.

Charts and Stuff

Jets Individual 5v5 individual statistics:

Individual scoring chances (iSC), shot attempt differential (Corsi +/-), non-blocked shot attempt differential (Fen +/-), and offensive zone face off as percentage of all non-neutral zone face-offs:

Screen shot 2015-04-07 at 7.47.11 PM

Shot attempt chart for all minutes:

chart (20)

(Courtesy: hockeystats.ca)

Shot location chart:

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(Courtesy: war-on-ice)

Gif Recap

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Back-to-back shutouts by Pavelec gets back-to-back Ron Burgundy head nods.

  • RedMan

    Winnipeg got very lucky last night. The Refs were atrocious. While some penalties should have been called on the Blues, many more should have been called on the Jets.

    The goal by the Blues should have been allowed. If that was a “slashing” penalty, every shift of every game would produce a slashing call.

    There is no question that the Jets will make the playoffs, they just won’t go deep.

    I hope Jets Nation isn’t drinking the Kool-Aid
    believing they are the Red Wings in their prime.

  • X

    Whether the Jets actually go a few rounds or not I don’t think anyone thinks they are the Avs last season. The Jets are, with some goaltending, quite a good hockey team and by the metrics that best predict NHL playoff success perhaps a very good hockey team.

    I don’t know what Kool-aid has to do with it. If the goaltending holds up the Jets are bound to be a handful for any opponent.

    Of course it is possible, even quite likely, that the goaltending will not hold up.