NHL Equivalent point production has flaws in it, many of which we at Nations Network hope to improve upon in the near future. Still, they are a good way to get a general idea on player developmental trends and offensive upside.
Generally speaking, at their fifth post-draft season (Draft+5) a prospects potential and probability of NHL success is all but determined, since point production peaks around the Draft+7 season.
The Winnipeg Jets have a well respected prospect pool and most junior and NCAA seasons are wrapped up. Let’s take a look at the numbers after the jump.
- Paul Stoykewych is the only Atlanta Thrasher draft selection on the list. The former seventh rounder has completed his collegiate career and has signed a PTO for the St. John’s IceCaps. For a puck mover though his scoring has been incredibly low.
- Brennan Serville never quite developed the offensive side of his game that the Jets hoped for. The third round pick scored 21 points in 127 games for Michigan, while Jacob Trouba had 17 in 37 games. Serville has completed his collegiate career but there have been no announcements on him at this moment.
- Aaron Harstad is the third prospect to end his collegiate career this season. Harstad is more known for his defensive game than his teammate Stoykewych, but carried similar scoring over the past few seasons. It’s interesting to see how flat Serville’s and Harstad’s production development has been.
- It is interesting to compare Jacob Trouba’s and Josh Morrissey’s draft year productions and look at scouting notes dictating Trouba as a defensive defenseman and Morrissey as an offensive defenseman. Trouba didn’t really generate respect for his offensive game until his Draft+1 season in Michigan, but it was his rookie year in the NHL where his production really emerged.
- Josh Morrissey struggled early in the season to reproduce his elite numbers in the WHL last season. The major source of Morrissey’s drop in production has come from power play goals, which hints that it may be shooting percentage fluctuations holding Morrissey’s numbers down. Morrissey will be looking at going pro net season. If he’s to make the Jets, he will likely have to pass all but two of Tobias Enstrom, Grant Clitsome, Mark Stuart, and Jay Harrison who are all signed next season, and likely Ben Chiarot who is likely to be extended.
- Jan Kostalek recently signed an ELC for the Jets and will be likely joining the Jets’ AHL affiliate next season. His scoring numbers have not been as high as Trouba, Morrissey, or Brenden Kichton, but he has been the next best defender despite being known more for his defensive impact.
- There is a false perception that defensemen peak later than forwards, despite their point production and Corsi impact peaking at the same age. Usually the source is their later entry in to higher leagues, likely caused by the reduction in available jobs but also the more obvious goal impact to defensive errors. Many of the Jets defenders played their Draft season in lower leagues without NHLEs available. Tucker Poolman actually spent the two seasons in these lower leagues.
- Poolman was a late bloomer by all reports. He has NHL size and has scored well, leading many to be excited on the prospect. His performance has been good, although adding an age perspective makes his numbers seem relatively less impressive. Poolman has spent much of his freshman season pulling a Dustin Byfuglien, playing top six minutes as a forward at even strength and at the point as a defenseman.
- Kichton’s journey has not been the normal one. In his Draft season, he was an undersized offensive defenseman who did not score and went undrafted. His production exploded the next season and was drafted late by the New York Islanders, only to not come in agreement on an ELC and went back to the draft where the Jets picked him in the seventh round and he became an AHL All-Star the next season for the IceCaps.
- Jack Glover’s game is comparable to Kostalek’s, and so is their Draft year production. Glover has struggled getting minutes on a stacked defensive core. If Poolman has been pulling a Byfuglien, it could be said that Glover has been pulling a Adam Pardy. To get Glover some playing experience, Glover has spent most of the season on the fourth line while also playing minutes on the penalty kill unit. Minnesota only has one defender graduating, although NCAA’s highest scoring defenseman, Mike Rielly, may elect to go pro as well.
- Nelson Nogier is the final defender with NHLE seasons. Nogier improved upon last seasons production, but has not put up much in numbers still. He has been known as a defensive defenseman and when he was in Saskatchewan the Blades’ organization praised Nogier’s underlying metrics.
- Marcus Karlstrom’s numbers are not shown, although he has recently played some games in the Allsvenskan which do have some *very* roughly estimated NHLEs. If he continues in that league next year, we will show those numbers.