NHL Equivalent point production has flaws in it, many of which we at Nations Network hope to improve upon in the near future. Still, they are a good way to get a general idea on player developmental trends and offensive upside.
Generally speaking, at their fifth post-draft season (Draft+5) a prospects potential and probability of NHL success is all but determined, since point production peaks around the Draft+7 season.
The Winnipeg Jets have a well respected prospect pool and most junior and NCAA seasons are wrapped up. Let’s take a look at the numbers after the jump.
- Alexander Burmistrov experienced a bit of a slump in offense relative to last season, although a range of 0.4-0.5 NHLE point production estimates that Burmistrov’s offensive game has improved significantly since he was in the NHL and most likely an above average middle six forward.
- Mark Scheifele continues developing his offensive game at the NHL level very well. Scoring only shows one facet of the game, but it should also be noted that Scheifele’s two-way game and impact on Corsi has improved much this season also.
- Joel Armia’s numbers are hurt by European NHLEs being overall poorer than North American. For the most part, prospects play top roles in the CHL and NCAA, but not so for European pro-leagues. Since moving to North America, Armia has been successful with scoring at comparable rates to Adam Lowry.
- Austen Brassard has struggled ever since being on a strong Belleville Bulls team in his Draft+1 season. Brassard has one more season on his ELC and his production has not been trending at a level that looks to him getting extended.
- Scott Kosmachuk has been transitioning to pro this year in the AHL. While his production is still lower than Lowry’s and Armia’s at the same age, Kosmachuk’s overall history shows that he has some more offensive upside potential untapped.
- Ryan Olsen has scored similarly to Brassard at each level, although he is well known for his defensive side of the game. Ultimately Olsen does not project much more than a fourth line role player. While production would be nice, his ability to push the play and promote possession will make or break him.
- Nic Petan finishes his junior career this season and will be transferring to pro next year. His size has lead to critics but his scoring is amongst the elite and he continues to prove naysayers wrong.
- Jimmy Lodge just received an ELC from the Jets this year and will be moving to pro with many of the other 2013 Jets’ draft selections. While he does not provide the grit of Lipon or defensive skill of Copp, he does offer more offensive upside than the other two.
- The IceCaps have struggled offensively this season, and next year will likely be similar with a large youth movement planned. JC Lipon’s numbers have fallen this season, but he is still showing he can chip in offensively. If he can refine his defensive game some more, he may prove his worth for a fourth line role and an extension after his final season under his ELC next year.
- Andrew Copp has one more year of NCAA eligibility although there are some thinking he may go pro next year and join the Jets new AHL team. Copp is similar to Lowry in many ways. They’ve scored at similar rates later in their developmental years and are well respected for their defensive acumen.
- Axel Blomqvist was never drafted, instead joining the organization after he signed an ELC after a strong performance at the Jets junior camp. At 6’6 he has a size that teams covet. If his production can translate in the next year in the AHL, he could become a useful support bottom six player.
- Nikolaj Ehlers finished quite the regular season, dominating the QMJHL and carrying his junior team on his back. His production is second to none in his Draft+1 season for Jets prospects. There are things to get excited about as fans. Many feel like it will be between Petan and Ehlers for which player moves into the Jets roster next season, although both are possible.
- Brendan Lemieux is a new addition for the Jets, as part of the return with Joel Armia in the Evander Kane and Zach Bogosian trade. Lemieux has shown some offensive upside –especially in goal scoring– although he is known more for his pest abilities.
- Chase De Leo gets compared to his Portland Winterhawks teammate Nic Petan often. Both are of similar stature but score at high rates. De Leo has never quite scored as impressively as Petan and his play style is different, but still shows promise in his production. Due to his birthdate, De Leo could play in the AHL next season or play his overage year in the WHL depending on how the team feels would best benefit his development.
- Clinston “C.J.” Franklin is another undersized scorer much like Petan and De Leo. At 5’11 he is a bit bigger, although his scoring numbers are slightly less impressive. He does hold three more years of NCAA eligibility, so the Jets have a while until they have to make a decision.
- Pavel Kraskovsky is the Jets lone MHL prospect. He does hold a KHL contract and will be ineligible to appear at the Jets next professional tryout because of it. He has projectable size and skill, with some decent scoring to add to his resume. The most impressive part though is that he was barely 2014 draft eligible. Only a few days difference and Kraskovsky would have been looking at this year’s upcoming draft.
- Matt Ustaski sits as the Jets third 6’6 player, with Lowry and Blomqvist. His scoring though has not come together like the previous two mentioned players. Ustaski does have three more seasons to refine his game in the NCAA before the Jets need to sign the forward to a contract.